Trade Ideas
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Failure to sustain gains into the close suggests a correction back towards 1.4325, but while above here the bias is still to 1.4698/1.4707. USD/JPY: Downside break from triangle pattern exposes 76.31/30/25 key support, but this looks to be holding once again. Through 77.11 implies a bounce to 77.82. GBP/USD: Break above 78.6% […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: GBP/USD: Market reaches range highs as expected, we now look for an upside break through here to the 1.6541/49 resistance zone, after some brief consolidation USD/CHF: Threatening minimal resistance from Monday’s peak of .8000 once again. We see risk through here to .8160 USD/CAD: Gradual grind lower persists, as the market continues to […]
FX Tech Trade Recommendation: Sell EUR/USD for a minimum decline to1.3350
Market seen at high risk of accelerating lower while the USD has improved its prospects for a broader recovery across board Central Scenario: The continuous failure to break above Ichimoku-resistance, the row of lower tops and the clearly established bear-trend in risk markets provide a high probability of accelerating lower
Are Bonds a Good Hedge for a Further Risk Sell-Off?
So yet one more twist and turn in the fate of Greece caught the mkt short Euro. PAIN has certainly been the word this week and TGIF never more true. Asia certainly looked like they had had enough with tight ish range but still nowhere near JPY with its sub 20 pips!
Chart Watch – USD/CAD looks to be at the beginning of a new uptrend
USD/CAD’s May low at .9448 most likely marks the end of its 2009-2011 bear market with the 1.0208 2009 trough being the six month upside targets and the 200 week moving average at 1.0592 being the one year upside target.
Strategic Weekly Technical Outlook
Foreign Exchange US Dollar Index has based near term and we look for a challenge of the 2010-2011 downtrend at 75.83. A close above here will add weight to the idea that the US dollar has based. EUR/USD – outlook bearish. Initial target 200 week ma at 1.4018. Even USD/CHF is attempting to turn from […]
FX Alpha – Greek Debt Crisis: Countdown
How Would a Greek Default Effect EUR Exchange Rates. A Greek default rating becomes more likely. Does this imply negative consequences for EUR exchange rates? In the short run, the answer probably is: yes. But especially if the ECB will nevertheless hike rates on July 7th, the euro would have recovery potential afterwards.
Strategic Technical Themes – weekly outlook
Foreign Exchange US Dollar Index has based near term and we look for a challenge of the 2011 resistance line at 75.59. EUR/USD has failed at the 78.6% retracement and risk has shifted to the downside – target 1.4010 then 1.3526
Chart Watch – Are we approaching a period of more sustained AUD/USD weakness?
Bank of England AUD TWI is looking toppy – would allow for slide back to the 2 year support line at 104.00. From current levels of 107.40 this would imply a 3% correction lower.