Technical Analysis
USD/JPY: Position for an extended bounce
Triggered by the global financial crisis, USD/JPY has been in a downtrend since June 2007 resulting in a cumulative 38% loss in competitiveness. Recently, however, this USD/JPY downtrend has slowed and now appears poised to reverse.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – sandwiched USD/JPY – sleeping beauty waking up AUD/USD – buyers keep responding EUR/SEK – high session close EUR/NOK – strong buyers’ response
Currency Strategy
Small and sound supersede size For the past two years, our long-term outlook has been focused on fundamentals as being the most important driver for currencies. The intensification of the euro crisis last summer made undervalued (fundamentally weak) currencies appreciate temporarily.
Technical Analysis
USD index is entering a stronger support area… EURUSD added a bullish engulfing candle as a continuation print, but with plenty resistance above extension north is not a done deal… GBPUSD on the other hand added a potentially bearish “Doji” just below thick resistance which could be the harbinger for a fresh bout of pound […]
Technical Week Ahead
EUR/USD – Correcting the stretch (1.3145-1.3260 before down?) GBP/USD – Large “Head & shoulders”/”Round-top” still in play NZDUSD – Indicators favor the long side: Buy-on-dips
NZD in favor and risk appetite finally on the rise
Main conclusions SEB RAI has broken out of its previous range and looks technically set for still higher levels. AUD, CAD, EUR & NZD speculative presence are running at high levels while speculators still seem reluctant to take bets on the GBP.
Technical Analysis
Still unclear whether the EUR bounce has run its course or not. EUR/USD short term wide open, EURJPY likewise (watch cautiously 100.33/77) but EURGBP’s downside key day reversal argues for more downside (a short term GBPJPY play?), EURSEK and EURNOK both posted inside days suggesting that topside risk somehwat higher than the opposite, at least […]
Technical Analysis
Euro short covering continued to dominate the scene also yesterday (Spec pos short euro trimming?). Dollar index eyeing the 79.00/50 buy area, rechecking and validating its neckline, EURSEK continues to trade lower and is eyeing the 2011 low 8.6990,
Technical Analysis
Several EUR pairs having reached their first upside correction targets (in some cases some room left) and the market should hence be vulnerable to renewed weakness. AUDUSD is approaching rather important resistance levels in the 1.0480/0570-area, EURSEK still looks set to try 8.78, possible 8.70.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is rechecking Fri’s mid-body point at 1.2740. Bullishly above could lead into a more pronounced correction, but back under 1.2648 would be renewed fully bearish (and target 1.2588)… AUDUSD has confirmed support below and over 1.0400 would open up for 1.0500\85…
BUND ANALYSIS
(139,98)The BUND confirmed a strong closing on Friday ending the week just below 140, probably on the way toward the 141,77 s/t target. The indicators of the daily chart are well positive as well as those of the weekly one supporting further strength.
S&P ANALYSIS
(1282,80)The S&P confirmed a negative closing on Friday managing however to recover from a low at 1272,70. The weekly closing was instead still well positive, even strong. The indicators of the daily chart are well positive but still close to the overbought area; those of the weekly one are also positive supporting higher levels.