Main conclusions
- SEB RAI has broken out of its previous range and looks technically set for still higher levels.
- AUD, CAD, EUR & NZD speculative presence are running at high levels while speculators still seem reluctant to take bets on the GBP.
- Large increases of net longs is noted in NZD continuing the pattern seen last report. Regarded as net positions it is still below its 52 week average level indicating it is a not crowded trade (yet). However, short contracts were also added to a larger extent which shows that there is an increasing amount of investors believing in a correction lower.
- An increase in net EUR shorts has brought another all-time record short position (though the short position did not by far increase as much as seen in the last report).
- Large net-shorts are also noted in CAD, CHF and GBP.
- Net speculative JPY longs came off its rolling 52 week record as more short contracts were added than long ones.
- Even though increasing net long aggregate position in USD and in the USD index investors does not currently seem to have a strong view on the USD, since the increases were small and the speculative presence in the index fell due to reduction in both long and short speculative contracts.
- Our FX O-meters provide very favorable indications for a long NZD/USD position.
- The strongest trends are up in NZD/USD and down in EUR/SEK and EUR/PLN while the most notable stretches (i.e. ready for corrections from ongoing trends) are seen in EUR/SEK, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP.
- GBP/USD is the only currency in our board with a higher realized volatility than normal.
Click here to read the full report:Speculative_Position_20120123
SEB tech team