Forex News
Economy Watch – Q3 GDP Not that Huge, but Surge Underway
While today’s Q3 GDP was not quite the smoking gun it appeared to be – and was not strong cause for us to change our view on the economy, the OCR and the NZD
FOMC: Improving Economy, Low Inflation, Tapering to Start
FOMC members reaffirmed their expectations for stronger growth in 2014 and for inflation to remain belowthe committee’s 2 percent target. Unemployment rate targets were lowered. Result? Fed starts tapering.
Germany: Companies end the year in festive mood
German companies are clearly looking forward to 2014. The Ifo index and other sentiment indicators are pointing towards an upside risk for our GDP forecast for Q4.
QIII Balance of Payments
The current account deficit was higher than we expected, reflecting larger than expected goods imports over the quarter. The $4.8 billion current account deficit brought the annual deficit to 4.1% of GDP
Sweden: Dovish Riksbank delivers
As widely expected the Riksbank cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 0.75%. Notably, the repo rate path was revised down substantially. They keep a small short-term easing bias (16% likelihood of a rate cut at next meeting) and
RBA Board Minutes – December 2013
The RBA Board minutes contained little new insights into the RBA’s perception of domestic and global conditions. Thecentral bank’s easing bias remains intact and they are ready to cut the cash rate further “should that be appropriate”.
Euro area: Employment no longer falling
In the Euro area, employment is no longer falling. In a few “crisis countries”, employment actually grew strongly in Q3. Looking forward, the recovery heavily supported by the ECB still has a long way to go, especially on the labour market.
US November Retail Sales Show Solid Gain
Retail sales in November 2013 rose 0.7%, and that was up from both a 0.6% gain in October and market expectations of a 0.6% increase.
RBNZ holds but on track to hike next year
The RBNZ kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.5%, as universally expected. We maintain our long-held view ofMarch 2014 for the timing first OCR increase, with timing risks looking more balanced than prior to the meeting.
Sweden: Inflation expectations edge down
Inflation expectations for all time horizons edged down in December, according to Prospera’s quarterly survey including money market players as well as labour market organisations and purchase managers.
Consumer Sentiment – December 2013
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell in December to a five-month low of 105.0. It is,however, still in positive territory (a level above 100 means that the number of optimists outweighs the number ofpessimists).