Forex News

the 2nd revision of Q1 UK GDP is out tomorrow AM see our econ group’s preview below UK GDP (Q1, 2nd release) – 09:30 BST The first release of Q1 GDP estimated growth over the quarter at 0.5%, despite being in line with the consensus forecast, should still be considered somewhat disappointing following the 0.5% […]

• EUR remains choppy on lack of clarity over Greece • GBP may be a safer sell than EUR, vs. NOK or AUD • Japan trade data less bad – bias remains to the downside for USDJPY.

News HR: Positive – EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting indicate EU discussions are drawing to a close (p2) HU: Negative – March Retail Sales surprise on downside (p2) SRB: Positive – Solid demand at the 18-month t-bill auction (p2) TK: Mixed – May Capacity utilization rises to 75.2% SA, Real Sector Confidence Index increases 0.4% mom […]

EUR USD (1.4045) It would seem that only the absence of bad news was respite enough for the euro yesterday, and it rose for the first time in three days. Germany’s Ifo index showed that the business sentiment in that country is better than analysts had been expecting, although it came in unchanged from the […]

Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Failure at 1.4134 sees market maintain downward trend towards 200 DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3655 GBP/USD: Near-term downward trend continues to dictate. While below 1.6308 the bias will remain lower to the 200 DMA/chart support zone at 1.5941/37 AUD/USD: Market threatening key internal trendline and chart support zone at 1.0455/43/1.0390 […]

Risk aversion is on the fore and euro correction against its key peers seems to be a short-lived affair… EURUSD under 1.4002 would argue for fresh lows…

G10 Currencies EUR: On Monday evening hope emerged that German government representatives and the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker would put an end to the public speculation about the enforced restructuring (i.e. a default).

Move stops on current positions – long bund, short eur/usd, long usd/sek EU 2-10 swap curve is breaking this years downtrend – allow for short term widening

– AUD and KRW lead sell-off vs USD, Asian equities down 0.3-0.7% – Turkey’s MPC likely to keep policy rates unchanged at 6.25% – US durable goods likely provide more headwind for risk assets

Markets will open on the back foot in Europe. MSCI Asia Pacific earnings were down 11% last quarter, while a tech company disappointed. Equities in the region dropped at the open before stabilising, while USD/Asia was a bit up with the crucial exception of CNY.

EUR/USD is finding some cloud support, circa 1.3975 (see chart). So far this has prompted a very small rebound and near term the market will encounter initial resistance at 1.4195 ahead of 1.4305/45. While capped here, a negative bias will remain.