the 2nd revision of Q1 UK GDP is out tomorrow AM see our econ group’s preview below
UK GDP (Q1, 2nd release) – 09:30 BST
The first release of Q1 GDP estimated growth over the quarter at 0.5%, despite being in line with the consensus forecast, should still be considered somewhat disappointing following the 0.5% contraction in Q4. Although questions have been raised regarding the accuracy of the construction figures within GDP, the latest construction data suggested only a marginal upward revision, compared with the first estimate of GDP, which would in any case be cancelled out by weaker March production numbers. Therefore, overall GDP growth in Q1 is likely to remain at 0.5% q-o-q, 1.8% y-o-y. As is often the case, the main focus for the second release of GDP will instead be on the various expenditure components, which are made available for the first time. Better trade data since the start of the year should see net trade make a reasonable contribution to growth, while gross investment could well bounce back following a 1.8% decline in Q4. However, arguably most important will be whether any life is seen in consumer spending, following a flat reading in Q3 and a 0.3% reduction in Q4, and to what extent government spending (due to be cut back sharply later in the year) may still be supporting growth.
Q1 1st release Median Forecast
Quarter 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Year 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%
HSBC Global Research