Forex News
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – C/A surplus narrows to 3% of GDP / MinFin sold EUR 35mn 7Y GBs: avg. yield 4.45%, bid/cover 3.42 (p2) CZ: Positive – Dec PPI comes in at 4.6% yoy (0.1% mom) (p2) RO: Positive -MinFin sold RON 3.5bn 1Y T-Bills: avg. yield 6.21%, bid/cover 1.2 (p2) TK: Negative – Dec […]
EUR, AUD higher in Asia after Chinese data beats expectations
The EUR and AUD strengthened in the Asian session after China’s Q4 growth beat market estimates with 8.9 percent y/y growth recorded versus 8.7 percent expected – but still lower than Q3’s 9.1 percent. The expansion was the slowest we have seen in 10 quarters, with slower exports and the effect of measures against property […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Small comfort in scale of S&P ratings actions as Greek PSI talks run into more trouble The reality of S&P’s ratings action against various Eurozone sovereigns on Friday was less bad than the threats made by S&P back in early December. Yet any hopes this might engender a ‘buy the fact’ response were dashed, in […]
The Week Ahead – Rising signs of worry amid the complacency
S&P’s downgrades of a number of EU sovereigns appears to have had limited impact so far on risk appetite, which remains healthy on the surface. But beneath the surface signs of strain are increasingly evident.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk appetite was boosted by Draghi’s positive comment and very successful Spanish bond auctions 2. We have fine-tuned our ECB rates forecasts following yesterday’s press conference. We now look for the Refi rate to be cut to 0.75% in March and to 0.50% in Q2. 3. Mixed news continue to come in […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – TOP 09, one of the government’s junior coalition parties, threatens to quit the government if the cabinet fails to join the EU fiscal compact (p2) RO: Positive – MinFin sold RON 917mn 3Y GBs: avg. yield at 6.95%, bid/cover 2.17 (p2)
Europe Rates Today: Spanish auctions, ECB & BoE decisions
Spain offers three- and four-year Bonos Today’s bond auctions from Spain (results after 10:30CET) will be the first ones of this year and pose a strong test of the recent outperformance of Bonos. A new three-year benchmark, SPGB4 7/15 will be launched whilst SPGB3.25 4/16 and SPGB4.25 10/16 will be re-opened for a combined amount […]
Mixed China inflation data leaves the path unclear for policy
All eyes were on China’s CPI and PPI data for December during the Asian session, but in the end the reports provided little direction for markets. CPI was a marginal disappointment, coming in at 4.1 percent y/y compared to a 4.0 percent consensus but still edging lower from November’s 4.2 percent.
Eropean Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Extended recovery to $1.27831, with any stops above $1.2780 triggered seen meeting profit take sell interest after the pressured move higher. Middle eastern buys cited for providing the mian demand in the move up from around $1.2750. Rate trades around $1.2774.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – Activity indicators disappointed in November; MinFin sells BGN 50mn of 10½Y GBs at 5.35% (p2) CZ: Neutral – Dec CPI came in at 2.4% yoy / Nov retail sales expanded 0.5% yoy (p2) KZ: Positive – GDP growth was 7.5% in 2011, Prime Minister Karim Massimov wrote on Monday (p3) RO: […]
EUR/USD ANALYSIS
EUR/USD closed NY Monday at $1.2765, toward the upper end of its intraday trading range of $1.2666/1.2785. Rate initially edged higher into early Asian dealing, with talk of stops above $1.2785, and larger ones above $1.2800, seen as the early attraction.
Overnight Wrap, Orderbook, Flow, USDAsia, Levels
1) Overnight Asia Wrap Despite negative euro data and the resignation of SNB chairman Hildebrand, the euro survived a relatively tame session in NY yesterday. China’s strong trade surplus in December, and German negative yields from yesterday’s auction have so far kept markets calm after the inconclusive Merkel/Sarkozy meeting, despite increasing possibility in analysts and […]