1) Overnight Asia Wrap
Despite negative euro data and the resignation of SNB chairman Hildebrand, the euro survived a relatively tame session in NY yesterday. China’s strong trade surplus in December, and German negative yields from yesterday’s auction have so far kept markets calm after the inconclusive Merkel/Sarkozy meeting, despite increasing possibility in analysts and the IMF’s minds that Greece may have to leave the euro. Euro-dollar 1.2760-82 range amid firming Asian bourses, with cable edging higher from 1.5450 to 1.5478 as euro -sterling faded from 0.8269 to 0.8250, assisted by stronger UK BRC retail sales data. AUDUSD marched higher from 1.0229 through apparent stops 1.0285/95 to 1.0304 after an early jump on strong building approvals data. Kiwi broke up through 100 day MA at 0.7890 to a new 2mth high of 0.7941. Dollar-yen was consigned to a 76.79-91 range with euro tight through 98.05-28.
The Aussie opened in Asia at 1.0240 and after a brief low of 1.0229 ran up strongly against most currencies with the exception of the NZD. Asian bourses and a higher Chinese trade balance allied to stronger than expected Australian building approvals led a surge higher to 1.0275/80. EURAUD hit fresh all time lows of 1.2393 and eyes a projected 1.2300. AUDJPY mirrored the AUDUSD with a move up to 79.24 from early lows of 78.62. AUDUSD 200 day MA is 1.0414.
2) Orderbook & Flow
EURUSD topside offers at the 1.2800 handle. Downside stops 1.2650.
AUDUSD orders collecting around the 1.0000 level.
EURCHF bids below 1.2030-70.
Overnight we were sellers of USD vs CNY and INR and bought some USDIDR.
3) USDAsia Run
USDKRW 1159.0 (Morday Morning Open 1166.0)
USDINR 52.53 (53.07)
USDPHP 43.98 (44.34)
USDCNY1y 6.3185 (6.3420)
USDIDR 9220 (9265)
USDMYR 3.1445 (3.1615)
USDTWD 29.94 (30.18)
USDSGD 1.2900 (1.2985)
4) Opening Levels
EUR 1.2794
GBP 1.5478
JPY 76.81
CHF 0.9470
WTI 102.1
Brent 113.2
XAU 1621.7
Silver 29.25
X-Over 718
Portugal 1103
Ireland 702
Spain 441
Italy 530
UK 10y 1.81
Ger 10y 1.75
US 10y 1.98
Bund 139.10
Spain over bunds 374
Italy over bunds 509
BeBanks Index 70.04
3m Eur Xccy -96.5
HSBC Global Research