Forex Market
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Eurozone crisis gets an expiry date
EUR/USD (1.3455) Heartened by better-than-expected US employment data, traders pushed the euro to a short-lived spike on Friday. But the realisation soon settled in that moderate US employment gains look positive as they stem from tepid expectations.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 10 October 2011
Fitch pulls the rug from payrolls rally; Merkel-Sarkozy delivers little, but tone sees market retain optimism: A better than expected September US payrolls report took risk up and the dollar further down Friday, EURUSD making a new weekly high above 1.3500, only for the move to be more than reversed by Fitch’s ratings actions against […]
European FX Daily – Week Ahead in FX
– KRW and EUR lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities mixed – Germany and France pledge plans to stabilize Europe by end-October – EFSF progress in focus – US retail sales growth expected to accelerate – MAS likely to ease SGD appreciation, BoK and BI to remain on hold
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Investors’ focus to remain on Eurozone sovereign and banking issues this week as only second-tier macro indicators are expected. Interest rate strategy 1. The 10Y Bund trades at upper end of one-month yield range. Further upside traction limited unless positive news picks up 2. ECB announces bond purchases volume
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Mixed – August IP falls 0.4% (p2) TK: Negative – CBT Survey of Expectations shows inflation expectations rise to 7.5% from 7.3% for YE2011 (p2)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Trichet sets stage for Draghi rate cut
EUR/USD (1.3430) Expectations of an immediate ECB rate cut were trimmed in the hours that preceded yesterday’s rate-setting meeting. As suspected, traders considered any inaction as negative for growth and, by extension, negative for the euro.
European FX Daily – US non-farm payrolls today
– The INR and AUD lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.5-3.0% – German industrial output likely to fall in August – A weak US non-farm payroll is likely to renew growth concerns
Australia and New Zealand Weekly: Will the RBA start swimming with the global tide?
Central bank watch: Australia – No compelling reason for the RBA to do anything Doing nothing appears to be the strategy that offers the RBA the best risk/return. That said, the RBA used this week’s statement to state that it is ready willing and able to ease policy if required.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 06 October 2011
Signs of progress in Europe? Better sentiment, lower volatility A less volatile session saw an improvement in sentiment – or was it the other way around? – as headlines suggest efforts are being made to address the Eurozone slide. The IMF’s Borges made significant and positive comments on the possibility of the Fund extending its […]
European FX Daily – Now for the ECB and BOE
– ECB and BoE meetings in focus – We recommended going long SGD ahead of next week’s MAS meeting What to watch for today EUR: Risk of ECB disappointment. Our economists argue the ECB is unlikely to cut its policy rate today, particularly after surprisingly high inflation in September released last week.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – MinFin auctions CZK 6.04bn of 3.85/21: bid/cover 1.5, yield 3.16% (p2) KZ: Negative – The net international reserves decreased by USD 3.5bn to USD 32.5bn in September (p2) PL: Mixed – MPC keeps policy rates unchanged at 4.50% issues some hawkish comments to support the PLN (p2) RO: Positive – The […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: New reference points forget lessons of the past
EUR/USD (1.3335) Two new market reference points have come to the surface this week. The first concerns the ECB rate decision where, since the last rate-setting meeting, traders have been contemplating a rate cut. As much as 40bp were priced in as recently as last week.