Forex Market
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro rally fails to convince the bears
EUR/USD (1.3840) An ebullient euro, which has risen 5.6% just this month alone, was projected higher as shorts were squeezed on Friday. The move has left many market participants unprepared.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Stock market rally a boon for the eurozone crisis
EUR/USD (1.3805) Market commentators are using the promise by the Slovak opposition to vote in favour for the EFSF as an explanation for the huge risk appetite in the markets yesterday. This is puzzling, as no one ever doubted it.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – CPI slows to 3.3% yoy, flat mom (p2) CZ: Neutral – FinMin M. Kalousek says this year’s public sector deficit will end up below 4% of GDP (p2) PL: Neutral – At the switch tender MinFin bought back PLN 0.8bn DZ1111, PLN 1.2bn OK0112 and PLN 0.8bn PS0412 against PLN 3.2bn […]
HSBC Macrobullets – Wednesday 11 October 2011
TOP The US senate has passed the currency bill 63-35. Passage at this stage was highly expected, but all indications are that it is unlikely to either pass the House, or the White house. HSBC write up {http://bit.ly/pGIg11} and {http://bit.ly/qa5unx} Slovakia’s opposition leader said lawmakers must find a way to approve the EFSF enhancement which […]
Daily Economic Briefing: October 11, 2011
Global data summary Recognition that G-4 growth is set to be weak at best, combined with the recent tightening of EM domestic financial conditions, has prompted some unexpected policy easing in the emerging economies. So far the moves have been limited to a handful of countries and pretty modest, consistent with our view that EM […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The EU, IMF and ECB inspectors have completed the review on Greece paving the way for the EUR8bn tranche to Greece to be released early November. 2. The Slovakian vote on the enhanced EFSF has been delayed to later this week
Americas FX Daily – USD regains ground ahead of EFSF vote
What happened overnight – Slovakian coalition party says it will not support EFSF enhancement – UK manufacturing production weaker than expected – Sweden CPI below consensus forecast
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Expectations, if not rational, are high
EUR/USD (1.3625) If the euro is to survive, the eurozone must work out a fiscal union, according to the two newest Nobel economics laureates on Monday. Based on the rational expectations theory, Christopher Sims and Thomas Sargent recognise that government spending is less effective when people see limits to public financing and eventually expect the […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Positive – CPI dips 0.2% mom in September / Positive – September unemployment falls 0.2%-points to 8.0% (p2) KZ: Positive – PM posted on tweeter that real GDP growth was 7.0% yoy in Jan-September (p2) PL: Positive – Election results show strong support for the Civic Platform (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin issues […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 11 October 2011
Merkel-Sarkozy assurances taken at face value, EUR shorts continue to cover…….. The DXY version of the dollar index lost some 1.5% Monday and US equities posted their strongest one-day gain since August 23rd. This was after the market chose to take at face value assurance from French President Sarkozy that he and German Chancellor Merkel […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The result of the Slovakian vote on EFSF 2.0 remains uncertain as the SAS party has continued to reject agreement 2. UK industrial production set to contract in August 3. Japan’s current account surplus narrowed in August
FX Intraday Comment – Markets squeezed but watch Slovakia
Heading into last weekend markets knew Merkel and Sarkozy would meet on Sunday to discuss the G20 leaders’ summit in Cannes scheduled for 3-4 November. It seemed reasonable to assume the duo – who have held regular meetings in recent months – would not come up with anything specific on a meeting three weeks away.