Forex Market
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Positive – Fitch Ratings has upgraded Kazakhstan’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (p2) LN: Neutral – IMF publishes the Staff Report for Article IV Consultation (p2) PL: Negative – Oct IP growth decelerates to 6.5% yoy / Oct PPI accelerates to 8.5% yoy (p2) RO: Negative – Govt. sells 9M […]
India threatens new measures to calm the INR
– Currencies and Asian equities mixed – Swiss October trade data in focus – US Q3 GDP growth likely revised lower but details stronger
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Investors’ sentiment towards European assets remains fragile, with peripheral bonds dynamics still dictated by ECB interventions, or lack thereof 2. Norwegian GDP to reveal a further healthy expansion in Q3
Russia flows and eod
Russian assets trade weak given the performance of the global markets and hammered by Urals oil at 106 (down from 112 last week).
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Year-on-year EUR/USD change is zero
EUR/USD (1.3515) Despite having a clear mandate to reach a deal on deficit reduction, the bipartisan ‘supercommittee’ in the US is widely-expected to announce failure soon.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Today’s ECB’s SMP amount gathers more importance than usual. 2. Datawise, the focus this week will be on Eurozone PMI indices (Wednesday) and on the German IFO (Thursday).
Russia flows and eod
Basket trades very range-bound for the 2nd day within 35.72/80, while rates slide down on better local RUB supply. Looks like the street getting long the currency now after a period of being flat since the end of October.
SG FX – Who will buy all the bonds?
Foreign investors are selling European sovereign debt, (mostly German) politicians assert that stepping into that breach is ‘not the ECB’s job’ and the EC will put forward possible scenarios for the creation of a Euro Bond in a discussion paper later this week.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Positive – EconMin Matolcsy announces new cooperation with the IMF / Positive – HGB auctions attract strong demand (p2) LT: Neutral – IMF published Article IV Consultation (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin to postpone a USD MTN issue planned for late November / Mixed – MinFin sold RON 296mn 3Y GBs: avg yield […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ‘Risk-on’ is a thing of the past
EUR/USD (1.3490) Jobless claims, housing permits and the homebuilder sentiment were the bright spots on the US data front yesterday. However, ‘risk-on’ is an expression that has dropped out of investors’ vocabulary in recent weeks.
Australia: Divergence between commodity prices and AU 1y1y opens up an opportunity
As highlighted in Figure 1, the recent rally in the AU 1y swap rate 1y forward (AU 1y1y) appears to have been driven by a collapse in our Australian data surprise index (DSI).
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB may still get into action
EUR/USD (1.3490) The Italian yields stood at around 7.06 percent on Wednesday even after the market reportedly saw substantial ECB bond-buying.