Forex Market
FX Focus: AUD and NZD – The eurozone effect
The very near-term risk of eurozone governments failing to commit to faster fiscal consolidation and the ECB failing to commit to larger bond purchases points to downside risks for the high-beta AUD and NZD, following the recent rally. But we remain constructive over the medium term for the following reasons:
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: An optimal news day
EUR/USD (1.3460) The impressive rally in equities yesterday was a clear reaction to the coordinated global intervention by central banks to lower dollar swap costs. The announcement followed a Chinese move to lower the reserve ratio requirement by 50bp, and preceded a better-than-expected Chicago PMI, so the market had almost a surfeit of positive headlines […]
China: Easing cycle officially starts
PBoC surprised markets and us by announcing a 50bp reserve ratio cut, effective from 5 December. Today’s reserve ratio cut marks the official start of China’s monetary easing, in response to the noticeable slowdown of both the latest inflation and growth data.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Desperate Optimism?
EUR/USD (1.3335) Even as banks, lawyers, brokers and big businesses prepare contingency plans for a possible eurozone breakup, the markets nevertheless seem to be pinning their hopes on the outcome of the ongoing EU Finance Ministers meeting.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Neutral – NBH MPC hikes rates by 50bp in line with consensus (p1) BG: Negative – Economic sentiment down by 1.7 points in Nov (p2) LT: Positive – Final 3Q GDP revised up to 6.7% (p2)
Previewing today’s Eurogroup and tomorrow’s ECOFIN meetings
Summary The regular monthly meetings of the Eurogroup (starting 16.00 today) and ECOFIN (tomorrow from 08.00 GMT) come at a time when Germany is exerting a strong push to achieve a regime of much tougher fiscal discipline, decisions on Greece, discussion of the new government plans for Italy,
European FX Daily – Optimism about Europe extends further
– Optimism about Europe extends into Asian trading – Focus on Italian auction going into Eurogroup meeting – US consumer confidence expected to rise
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The OECD called for urgent action to boost the ailing global economy in its latest Economic Outlook. 2. Eurogroup and EcoFin meetings starting today for two days should advance on several topics, including the EFSF, before the European summit on 9 Dec.
EMEA FX under renewed selling pressure
HUF: Moody’s unexpected downgrade hurts our long HUF trade PLN: NBP will intensify its interventions TRY: The CBRT has to show it stands behind the lira CZK: The CZK is not a safe haven. EUR-CZK to break above 26.00
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. ‘Risk-off’ mode dominated on a poor German bund auction and weak global economic data 2. German IFO index to continue its downward trend in November.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – 3 ways to fight FX depreciation
News BG: Neutral – Gross external debt down 0.1% mom in September (p2) LV: Positive – 3Q Unemployment decreases to 14.4% (p2) TK: Neutral – MPC keeps the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) at 5.75% (p2)
The RBI announces further measures to support the INR
– Antipodeans and INR lead rally vs the USD, Asian equities mixed – RBI announces further measures to support the INR – A weaker German Ifo likely to weigh on the EUR