Forex Market
JPY ANALYSIS
The run-up in USD/JPY, above its 55-day (Y77.40) for the first time since Dec 30, is not a complete surprise. CFTC data, as per Friday, for positions as of Jan 17, showed that speculative accounts had a net yen long of +58,862 contracts, vs the prior week’s net long of +59,657 contracts, which was the […]
Technical Analysis
USD index is entering a stronger support area… EURUSD added a bullish engulfing candle as a continuation print, but with plenty resistance above extension north is not a done deal… GBPUSD on the other hand added a potentially bearish “Doji” just below thick resistance which could be the harbinger for a fresh bout of pound […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EUR holds onto yesterday’s gains despite setback on a PSI+ deal Yesterday’s meeting of finance ministers failed to bring a resolution to the PSI discussions as Eurozone officials late on Monday formally rejected the Greek PSI offer on the basis of the coupon being offered.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Is a reversal of euro outflows underway?
EUR USD (1.3000) Yesterday morning the euro started the day with clear indications that negotiations on Greek PSI are heading for an impasse. During the day it shrugged off the official confirmation about the Greek stalemate and continued firming up.
Asian Market Summary
Regional markets are mostly higher amid optimism over a Greek debt-restructuring plan, though trade is tepid as markets in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at $1.0525 after highs of $1.0573 yesterday afternoon and largely tracked the EUR/USD this morning with an early high of $1.0535. The pair headed lower as S&P downgraded 4 French banks in the wake of the sovereign downgrade on Jan13.
USD/JPY ANALYSIS
USD/JPY opened at Y77.02 and managed a paltry Y76.96-Y77.05 range, continuing to be boxed by trailing bids from Y76.90 to Y76.50, with offers from Y77.10 up to Y77.40. Stops are seen down through Y76.50 and above Y77.40.
Technical Week Ahead
EUR/USD – Correcting the stretch (1.3145-1.3260 before down?) GBP/USD – Large “Head & shoulders”/”Round-top” still in play NZDUSD – Indicators favor the long side: Buy-on-dips
NZD in favor and risk appetite finally on the rise
Main conclusions SEB RAI has broken out of its previous range and looks technically set for still higher levels. AUD, CAD, EUR & NZD speculative presence are running at high levels while speculators still seem reluctant to take bets on the GBP.
USD/CAD ANALYSIS
The CAD firmed against a broadly weakening USD as positive sentiment in Europe helped to push the Canadian dollar within one penny of parity. The USD was recently at C$1.0078 Monday, from C$1.0133 late Friday.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Renewed worries about Greece
EUR USD (1.2965) Snippets of information trickling from meetings gave an impression on Friday that Greece and the IIF were converging towards a deal. As a result the euro gained a little momentum.
EUR/USD ANALYSIS
EUR/USD closed NY Friday at $1.2935 with rate getting marked down into the Asian open to $1.2902 as markets showed their disappointment that no deal had been settled on Greek debt. Stops through $1.2880/60 were taken out in thin Asian trade, several centres closed for the Chinese new year celebrations, taking it to lows of […]