Forex Market
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0747 with a gap down from the NY close of $1.0770 after highs of $1.0792. The NFP release on Friday saw some heavy bailing out of longs in EUR/AUD to fresh all time lows of A$1.2168, which helped to underpin AUD/USD throughout the session.
Asian Summary
EUR/USD gapped down on the open this morning in Asia at $1.3120 after Friday’s NY close of $1.3157 and headed lower after weekend news pointed to a delay to the Greek debt swap deal until later today.
A monthly run through the long-term charts
MAJORS FX: The dollar index violated a medium-term important “B-wave high” at 81.44 and this points closer to prior tops at ~89, but the bullish move wasn’t sustained and the low monthly close somewhat dilutes a bullish stance.
FX Market Analysis
A reluctance to place new bets ahead of key U.S. employment data trumped economic data and the trickle of euro-crisis headlines in European trading hours Friday, as major currencies generally held within tight ranges.
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5819 stg0.8305, having recovered off pullback lows of $1.5795. Rate slipped into early Asian trade, with reported stops sub $1.5790 an early attraction. Rate dipped to an extended low of $1.5786 (off recent highs at $1.5884 Feb1) before picking up fresh demand.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y76.21 and Y100.13. Usual comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Azumi to take firm steps to combat any speculative moves in the JPY were ignored. The USD traded a Y76.14-26 range hemmed in by bids ahead of Y76.00 and exporter offers towards Y76.50.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Jan international reserves decreased 2.8% mom (+6.2% yoy) (p2) CZ: Neutral – CNB leaves repo rate unchanged at a record low 0.75% (p2) HU: Neutral – State owned airline Malev files for bankruptcy and stops operation, fiscal impact should be small
EUR/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3173, Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.3145, having settled mid range after recovering off this session’s lows of $1.3085 and pushing up to $1.3187. Rate eased lower into Asia, touching $1.31144, the move down seen as a ‘normal’ Friday risk off Asian move, but given an added knock on release of […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Greek PSI+ aside for now with NFP report on the schedule today The risk-on rally lost some steam by the end of the NY trading day with US equities ending the day basically flat while USD strengthened against most of G10 FX; Asian markets have settled into the usual pre-NFP lull.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Fed: Two degrees of freedom
EUR USD (1.3135) Ben Bernanke made an important comment about employment in his testimony yesterday: the Fed considers joblessness in the context of the whole population. This sentence might have been an acknowledgement of a Chicago Fed study we discussed in our last report.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD charted an inside day to leave our outlook unchanged – we remain biased towards failure at 1.3245/50, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from November. However chart action at this juncture is not at all clear.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5807, having recovered off pullback lows of $1.5795. Rate slipped lower into early Asian trade, with reported stops sub $1.5790 seen as an early attraction. Rate dipped to an extended low of $1.5786 (off recent highs at $1.5884 Feb1) before picking up fresh demand.