Forex Market
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3130, after its recovery off earlier Monday session lows of $1.3030 was given a boost through European closing fixes to a high of $1.3142, closing any chart gaps left after rate was marked down into Asian trade Monday.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD near term trading is limited to 1.3000-1.3250/80. We wait a break from here to determine the short term direction. We remain biased towards failure at 1.3245/50, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from November.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0726 after lows in NY/Europe yesterday of $1.0683/88. the pair eased down to $1.0693 ahead of an expected 25bp cut from the RBA and a weaker Shanghai composite.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y76.55 after lows in NY of Y76.51. Some heavy sales were seen in yesterday’s session but the pair maintained a hold above Y76.50 and again this morning with semi-official names seen providing the support.
EUR/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3086, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3157, with rate marked lower into early Asian trade as weekend failure to get an agreement from the governing Greek parties to the necessary reforms weighed on risk.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y76.65 and Y100.15 Opened in Asia at Y76.60 just off the highs seen in NY of Y76.73 following Friday’s strong NFP release. After an initial dip to Y76.50 this morning on EUR/JPY sales, the pair then picked up again through Friday’s high, taking out stops to Y76.80 before hitting profit […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5776 stg0.8295 GBP closed in NY at $1.5820, having recovered off post FOMC pullback lows of $1.5750 to $1.5830. Rate marked session highs at $1.5822 into early Asia before getting dragged lower by EUR/USD, the latter feeling the weight of disappointment that the Greek governing parties could not agree necessary austerity […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Bernanke has yet to rule out QE3
EUR USD (1.3085) The surge in US payroll data triggered an equity rally. After initially falling the euro regained strength and finally closed lower at the pre-payroll levels. As the ISM data was also firm, the market is again discussing whether the odds against the QE3 have now increased and whether the Fed will tighten […]
Speculative Positions
Main conclusions Scaling back on net short EUR position and stretched Scandies SEB RAI and the Carry index moving higher and RAI is now closing in an the recent highs seen in mid Oct 2011.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Stellar payrolls report feed the risk-currency fire, but USD ends the day flat A sharp knee-jerk negative dollar reaction to what was a stellar US employment report was subsequently tempered by the sharp back-up in US Treasury yields and questioning not only of the likelihood of additional QE measures by the Fed but also the […]
Technical Analysis
The positive vibes ending last week seems to be prevailing, perhaps except the euro that has continued to slide after the topside failure. EURUSD still trapped in the 1.3026/1.3219 range but with a negative undertone, EURAUD have broken to a multi decades low,
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y76.60 just off the highs seen in NY of Y76.73 seen following the strong NFP release on Friday and higher US yields. After an initial dip to Y76.50 this morning on EUR/JPY sales as the Greek debt deal continues to be delayed, the pair then picked up again through Friday’s high, […]