Forex Market
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.61 having been skittled lower yesterday following a clear out of EUR/JPY longs and month end flows. The cross fell in Tokyo after failing to take out a Y110.00 barrier (high Y109.96) and ran down through Europe to lows of Y107.19 in early NY trading.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
No oil price worries in evidence Friday The S&P500 made its highest close since June 5, 2008 on Friday, while in G10 FX, SEK, representing the country most exposed to the global growth cycle, was the strongest performer on the day and second biggest gainer on the week versus the USD (+2.65%, just pipped by […]
Measuring and analyzing positioning, flows and trends in the FX market
More active bets on falling JPY and less so on GBP The IMM data for the period 15-21 Feb revealed: The JPY net speculative long position fell further but was this time driven by added short contracts and not by reduced long contracts as was the case last week.
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5875, recovering off pullback lows of $1.5870 after rate had seen extended highs of $1.5900. The recovery extended into early Asian trade on cross yen demand, pushing to $1.5904.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3447, recovering back from pullback lows of $1.3444 after posting highs of $1.34869. Rate extended recovery to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro needs to sneak a peek behind the LTRO
EUR USD (1.3445) Given that the German Parliament will vote today to approve the second Greek bailout, it was clear from the outset that Germany would not agree to top up the pan-European rescue vehicles, just yet.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Trend ending signals for USD/JPY
Last Friday USD/JPY closed above its weekly cloud for the first time since Jul 2007 suggesting that the long-term downtrend is over. If this is the case then we would expect to see further confirmation this Wednesday with the dollar closing the month above its 21-month average (80.90).
Technical Analysis
Euro rally continued Friday without much sign of stretch, still surprisingly small adjustments to the non-commercial short euro position (latest reporting period = Tuesday close last week).
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3455, off traded highs of $1.34869. Rate extended its recovery off late NY session pullback lows of $1.3444 to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened around Y81.25 after closing in NY at Y81.20 and after an initial slip to Y81.22 headed higher on a combination of AUD and EUR cross buying to Y81.67 on corporate month end demand. Profit taking across the board in the yen complex then followed shortly after Japan opened.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened at $1.0694 in Asia this morning and headed up in early trading from $1.0688 to $1.0718 on the back of some strong AUD/JPY buying which took out a Y87.00 barrier to highs of Y87.48, before profit taking set in on Tokyo’s arrival with a fall back to Y86.45.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Observers struggle to explain euro strength
EUR USD (1.3370) Many market commentators attribute the euro’s current strength to yesterday’s better-than-expected German IFO. This may be because this was the only euro-positive release of the day.