Forex Market
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Cross focus as USD consolidates
As the dollar unwinds intraday overbought signals at the start of the week, crosses have drifted off the sidelines but without suggesting a consistent story. EUR/GBP rallied sharply but this move must be kept in context of the downtrend of the last 10 months.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has held the initial test of the 55 day moving average, this is located at 1.3084. Rebounds are expected to remain tepid and we look for the Euro to remain under pressure and continue to regard the recent high at 1.3487 as an interim peak.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD is correctively higher, but should ideally turn lower from Fri’s ~1.3195 mid-body point… GBPUSD bearishly violated the 1.5644 ref and should extend losses, initially towards 1.5580/40. Resistance starts at 1.57…
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3154, having recovered Monday from a low of $1.3079 to $1.31599 on improved risk outlook. Rate dipped back to mark early lows in Asia at $1.3146 before pushing higher as risk was further boosted by the gains in equity markets, the eventual break of $1.3170 tripping stops which took rate on […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5637 after rate had been pressured to intraday lows of $1.5603 with recovery to $1.5646 through the rest of the session seen laboured as it trailed EUR/USD stronger correction. This in turn allowed EUR/GBP to break back above stg0.84, marking a high in NY at stg0.8417.
No further stimulus from BOJ; USDJPY edges lower
Asia’s focus was on the Bank of Japan today, awaiting its announcement after a two-day meeting. After an unusual delay, the BOJ announced no change in interest rates, holding then steady at 0.1 percent (what else can they do?) while there were no new easing steps announced.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.32 and edged up to Y82.43 ahead of the BOJ announcement, but continues to be capped by exporter supply, despite waning concerns over China’s growth after weekend trade deficit data, and some optimism that the BOJ might ease further.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened on a firmer footing this morning in Asia after being pressurized for a large part of yesterday’s session on Chinese trade concerns and a strong rally in the EUR/AUD. AUD/USD fell to $1.0474 technical support in Europe from $1.0576 but rallied later in the day to $1.0511.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ‘Green shoots’ means no Fed
EUR USD (1.3085) The gain was just a little more than one percent, but it was enough to qualify Friday’s rise in the dollar-index as the largest of the year. The steady rally even accelerated briefly after the better-than-expected US payrolls number.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y81.55 after trading a Y81.32-73 range in NY but has remained on a firm footing through morning trade as equities rallied and broad based selling of yen underpinned the crosses.
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3270 after rate had been pushed to a high of $1.32914 on Greek PSI optimism. Trade through Asia was contained within $1.3256/79, the rate settling toward the lower end into early Europe and the Greek PSI pick-up release.
GBP/USD Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5820, with trade through Asia contained within a tight $1.5811/33 range as market awaited the result of the Greek PSI take up at 0600GMT. The 83.5% take up prompted a paring back in risk positions, with cable tracking EUR/USD slippage and breaking down to $1.5790.