Forex Market
China GDP numbers disappoint, sending risk into reverse
The Chinese economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of this year, growing 8.1 percent y/y, its slowest pace of expansion in almost 3 years. The growth rate was below the consensus of +8.4 percent and much lower than Q4’s 9.2 percent rate, and also was far off the 9 percent-plus rumour […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB Bond Purchase Programme 2.0
EUR USD (1.3130) After many punishing days for asset markets, there was a palpable desire to see some correction yesterday. A rebound in equities, peripheral bonds, and the euro were in unison with comments by Benoît Coeuré suggesting a bond purchasing programme in Europe ‘still exists.’
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5909 after recovering off a late session pullback low of $1.5888, with the corrective rally continuing into Asia as rate edged on to $1.5930. The rally trailed EUR/USD, which in turn allowed EUR/GBP to edge up from early Asian lows of stg0.8234 to stg0.8249.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3109 after recovering off a late pullback low of $1.3094. Rate extended recovery, aided by early EUR/JPY demand into Asia, with dovish comments from Fed Yellen providing the early lift to $1.3125.
JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.86 after lows in Europe of Y80.57. Light fixing and proprietary account demand, allied to buying from Japanese names in the EUR/JPY following dovish comments from Fed’s Yellen led the dollar higher this morning to Y81.07 before exporter offers turned the tide with a drift back to Y80.84.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: A pause in proceedings
Within the recent bout of risk aversion we are seeing sings of a near-term bounce as investors take profits. The S&P 500 is finding interim buying interest over its daily cloud and the down move in base metals is stalling against stretched momentum studies.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · USDJPY: Holds at key near-term support target, 80.58, but only above 81.88 eases downside risks. · AUDUSD: Push above trend line resistance from February eases immediate bear threat, but 1.0465 is needed for a small base (which we would look to cap).
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD is inching slowing higher, bouncing off the shallow support line at 1.3034, which connects the lows from February to the lows seen in March. Failure here should act as an early warning signal of losses to the more important support at 1.2974/54, the February low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3109 after recovering off a late pullback low of $1.3094. Rate extended its recovery, aided by early EUR/JPY demand into Asia, with dovish comments from Fed Yellen (a known dove but some had positioned for a possible slight change in stance) providing the early lift to $1.3125.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5909 after recovering off a late session pullback low of $1.5888, with the corrective rally continuing into Asia as rate edged on to $1.5930. The move up trailed EUR/USD as this latter rate outpaced, which in turn allowed EUR/GBP to edge up from early Asian lows of stg0.8234 to stg0.8249. Both […]
AUD surges after a very strong Oz employment report
Australia released quite an astounding employment report in the Asian trading day, setting the tone for a better sentiment towards risk which prevailed for the rest of the session. Australia added some 44.0k jobs in March, beating the consensus median estimates of +6.5k by a large margin, well above even the most optimistic forecasts in […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.86 after lows in Europe of Y80.57 with pressure absorbed yesterday by talk of semi-official bids in the Y80.50/60 zone which curtailed further attempts to push the pair lower.