Forex Market
Asia today: AUD unmoved despite another set of positive data
Despite better-than-expected Australian trade numbers for May, AUD was virtually unmoved in the Asian session Thursday. JPY, meanwhile, was under a little pressure as equity markets opened in the red across the region and BOJ reiterated it would pursue powerful easing.
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts
A consistent breakdown in several EUR crosses warns of bearish follow-through for EUR/SEK and EUR/NZD. EUR/AUD is approaching year lows near 1.2130/50, and a break below this zone likely would add to the bearish evidence.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Tests upper 21 day Bollinger band. The AUD is starting to look a little tired and is risking a pullback to the key support noted at $1.0158.
Win-win for SEK as EURSEK trades at its lowest since 2000
The situation for Europe is a win-win for SEK at the moment, as EURSEK dropped to its lowest level since 2000 after the Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.50% ahead of a possible ECB cut tomorrow.
SEK after Riksbank July meeting
EUR/SEK working its way towards our long-term target at 8.40 (a bit faster than anticipated) New repo path shows a 30% probability for a cut in September. This is based on international/ European developments as the domestic growth and labour market forecasts are raised slightly.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: IMF unlikely to steer a change of policy
EUR USD (1.2585) Against the backdrop of manufacturing contraction in 21 out of 29 global PMI’s, the IMF’s Lagarde yesterday highlighted the dangers of growth-threatening fiscal and monetary policy.
NZDUSD – fairly priced, but…
NZDUSD has been on a tear lately, pushing impressively back above the 0.8000 level. The drivers for the rally suggest that the currency pair is fairly priced for now, but the rally may have a hard time from here.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5675, stg0.8033, GBP closed in NY $1.5685, off European recovery highs of $1.5708. Rate recovered in early Asia, the rate posting highs at $1.5690 before turning lower and tracking EUR/USD slippage to $1.5667.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2587, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2605 and marked session highs at $1.26083 before easing below $1.2600 on light trade, with traders noting Tokyo sales of EUR/JPY suggested to be linked to bund redemptions.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.76 and Y100.43, opened in Asia at Y79.80 and ground higher to Y79.89 in thin trade with many players on the sidelines ahead of Independence day in the US.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: EUR/NZD all-time low in sight
With the USD Index locked in a ranging pattern, we expect trading to be subdued today by the US Independence Day holiday. Bigger picture we are USD bullish but this week listless sideways drift is the likely outcome ahead of the release of US NFP on Friday.
Technical Analysis
Mid body testing into its third session… EUR/USD Still mid body testing… EUR/GBP Bear triangle?… EUR/JPY So far bids at mid body… EUR/SEK In the key support zone… USD/SEK Still in a narrow range… EUR/NOK Mid body bounce.