Forex Market
PBOC joins ECB and BoE easing fest, but EUR and risk are wilting
The Euro is was very weak on the ECB cut, even if it was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the PBOC joined the easing action with a rate cut of its own – Aussie tried to jump on the news, but should it?
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.76 and Y99.96, opened in Asia at Y79.90 and headed higher after the tokyo fix, Swiss and US name demand lifted the pair through Y80.00, flushing stops to highs of Y80.10.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5610, stg0.8026, opened Asia just off Wednesday’s lows of $1.5574, having eased back from late recovery highs of $1.5610.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2530, EUR/USD opened in Asia around $1.2526, easing off a late Wednesday recovery high of $1.2545 after posting session lows of $1.2508.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Late positioning in sterling ahead of BoE decision
EUR USD (1.2530) Ahead of the ECB meeting and likely BoE announcement on easing, investors are still debating the outcomes of the EU summit.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Long-term charts point to further EUR weakness
Event risk into the weekend should continue to keep trading volumes supressed, but that is not to say there is nothing going on. Yesterday, Bobls jumped the gun on the ECB announcement today by turning bullish after a month of selling.
EURUSD rally neutralized ahead of ECB, key US data
Last Friday’s summit reaction proved yet another “kneejerk-and-done” for EURUSD, as we are back where we came from ahead of today’s ECB and key US data today and tomorrow. What next?
Technical Analysis
EUR/SEK yesterday passed its 8.6990 key support, falling to lows not seen since the autumn 2000. For today we should keep in mind that normally after such a big move as yesterday’s there’s a ~80% probability of an initial dip to a fresh low followed by a bounce into yesterday’s range.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Slips Under 5 & 21-DMAs. The EURO sees mixed daily studies with the stochastic recovering in neutral territory but 10-day momentum fading at the zero line as the market slips under the 5 & 21-DMAs, which now offer initial resistance at $1.2561/81.
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened Asia just off Wednesday’s lows of $1.5574, having eased back from late recovery highs of $1.5610. Rate recovered in early Asia to $1.5596, the move falterin ahead of $1.5600, before settling between $1.5580/95 for the balance of the overnight session.
EUR/USD Analysis
Rate opened in Asia around $1.2526, easing off a late Wednesday recovery high of $1.2545 after posting session lows of $1.2508. Early CTA name sales squeezed rate to extended lows of $1.2518 before EUR/JPY demand into the Tokyo open countered and edged the rate to $1.2533.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened around $1.0275 in early dealings with volumes seen light following the US Independence day holiday. Trade contained in a tight range before jumping to $1.0285 on release of marginally better than expected May Trade balance data.