Forex Market

Asian Currencies Technicals

AUD/USD: $1.0155-60 region key support. The pair remains heavy with the $1.0155-60 region confirmed as key support with the rising daily TL off 2012 lows also seen supporting here yesterday.

The pair is likely to trade in a tight range today in Asia, with investors refraining from taking fresh positions before the Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy board meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.

Waiting for German Constitutional court and the FOMC minutes

No fireworks again today as the market eyed whether the German constitutional court would thrown the entire ESM ratification process into chaos. US FOMC minutes are up tomorrow.

Daily FX Technical Strategy: Euro drifts closer to another major cliff edge

Over the past 24 hours the markets have taken a breather. The absence of any reversal signals during that time points to a period of consolidation leaving the main themes unchanged.

GBP Analysis

Opened early Europe at $1.5507, stg0.7925, GBP closed in NY at $1.5526, off late NY recovery highs of $1.5535 after rate had seen lows earlier in the day at $1.5470 ($1.5462 post NFP Friday).

JPY Analysis

Opened in early Europe at Y79.50 and Y97.71, opened at Y79.55 and slipped in light flow to Y79.47 ahead of the Tokyo fix. Dollar recovered and was tied to a tight Y79.47 – Y79.60 range with little to move the pair.

Speculative Positions

Normalization of previous risk-off positioning the major theme Summary of the non-commercial (“speculative”) accounts in the CoT report (June 27 – July 3)

EUR Analysis

Opened early Europe at $1.2290, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2318, off recovery highs at $1.23248 after rate had seen lows earlier in the day of $1.2225.

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The dollar is weighing in on the euro

EUR USD (1.2285) The euro’s current weak position seems to be largely attributed to the disappointment from the EU summit and higher Spanish yields.

FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views

G10 EUR – Quiet o/n with eur failing to push on above 1.2330 lvl despite stops in the market – Still not huge clarity coming from the EU finance ministers meetings although comments from Schauble regarding use of ESM/EFSF funds ‘without warning’ suggests that they may stand ready to step in if Spanish and Italian […]

Technical Analysis

Yesterday basically became a day of consolidation so really no changes to our expressed views only a one day delay. EURUSD minor bear flag created look for a downside break of 1.2272 to trigger, AUDUSD mid body test, 1.0145, coming up,

FX Market Technical Research

EUR/USD: Still Testing Bollinger Band. EURO is still testing the base of the daily Bollinger band, which is now at $1.2280, suggesting the market has declined too fast in the spike lower to $1.2235 seen early Monday.