Forex Forecast

Two days of sharply lower fixings raise questions on further RMB weakness Following Friday’s sharply lower official USDCNY mid-rate fixing

Does recent China manufacturing PMI suggest the mini-stimulus is working? This past Tuesday’s release of final May HSBC Manufacturing PMI reached a 4-month high.

Draghi’s words always do the damage, so position accordingly The ECB decision today is perhaps the most-scrutinised in nearly two years as negative rates are expected.

Is additional US outperformance needed for CAD shorts to work? Having passed up multiple opportunities to talk down the Canadian dollar in statements and

Should central banks pay more than lip service to domestic rebalancing? The RBA decision overnight probably lacked the suspense of the ECB.

Euro weakness or dollar strength? With the ECB likely to ease again on Thursday,

Without robust growth, portfolio flows will be stagnant Ongoing Bank of Canada accommodation has driven CAD underperformance this year.

April’s consumer price data will be released in Japan on Friday This will be the first release of national CPI following the country’s sales tax rise.

Inflation will drive the dollar higher – but only if yields follow through In the latest edition of UBS Macro Strategy Weekly ‘Key Issue’,

CNH implied forward yield has been rising in spite of ample onshore liquidity In recent weeks the USDCNH forward curve has been climbing steadily;