Forex Forecast

Risk Appetite Remains Steady EUR remains resilient, with EURUSD trading above 1.24 on the back of buying from real money investors. Risk sentiment held up well despite weak economic data in Germany – where factory orders in June dropped by 1.7% m/m – and in Italy, which saw Q2 GDP contract by 2.5% y/y.

Risk Appetite Remains Steady EUR remains resilient, with EURUSD trading above 1.24 on the back of buying from real money investors. Risk sentiment held up well despite weak economic data in Germany – where factory orders in June dropped by 1.7% m/m – and in Italy, which saw Q2 GDP contract by 2.5% y/y.

RBA On Hold The RBA held its policy rate at 3.50% overnight, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank noted that inflation was expected to be consistent with the target and growth close to trend.

EUR Stabilises EUR continued to grind higher as investors hoped that Spain would request a full EU/IMF bailout, clearing the way for the ECB to buy Spanish bonds in the secondary market.

Quiet Start To The Week After an eventful week, the news wires were surprisingly quiet in Europe on Monday, though risk traded on a relatively soft tone. The week ahead sees limited data releases and given markets were probably caught up in a little excessive negativity heading towards the tail-end of last week, there is […]

Risk Keeping Buoyant Risk assets have begun the week in rude health as a firmer US data, a fresh interpretation of the ECB’s latest maneuvers and some buoyant news out of Asia have all contributed to a rebound in risk demand.

Stronger Payrolls, Stronger Euro The better than expected US employment report for July has not stood in the way of the EURUSD rebound. While the unemployment rate did tick higher to 8.3% (8.254% to be exact), the 163k rise in non-farm payrolls – with only a minor net downward revision of 6k for the previous […]

Risk Steadies Pre-Payrolls It appears that markets are choosing to reassess their initial reaction to yesterday’s ECB decisions and decided that things are not so bad after all.

Payrolls An Afterthought? After much anticipation it seems the market is back to square one. In hindsight perhaps it is wise never to expect too much as even central bankers know that there are some aspects of crisis resolution which are beyond their control – be it trying to accelerate a recovery in the US […]

Hope And Confusion Though EURUSD initially bounced higher on the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged and hopes for a bold gesture from Draghi, the sceptics were vindicated in the end.

ECB Up Next The market disappointment surrounding last night’s FOMC statement failed to continue into the European session as the dollar pared back some of its gains.