Forex Forecast

Dollar Grinds Lower After a directionless Asia session, the dollar sold off slightly in Europe on Monday, though news flow was limited. The euro pushed back beyond 1.23 while the Nordic currencies were the standout under-performers.

Japan GDP Disappoints With Japan on holiday this week for Oban, FX price action overnight was particularly subdued. Even a weak Q2 GDP print out of Japan failed to disturb USDJPY, although soft data such as this certainly raises the risk of additional policy easing from the Bank of Japan and so should in theory […]

Japan Q2 GDP Due Today Canada’s weak July employment report on Friday produced only a hiccup in the week-long CAD rally. The -30.4k net job change was stark in relation to the +6.0k consensus forecasts, but soothed considerably on seeing the breakdown: fulltime jobs actually increased by 21.3k, while 51.6k part-time jobs were shed.

Canadian Employment Data Due Risk traded on a relatively soft tone overnight after some disappointing data from China. The trade balance came in at $25.15 bn vs $35.0 bn cons, with exports growing just 1.0% y/y vs 8.0% expected.

Soft China Data Risk traded on a soft tone overnight after some soft data from China. The trade balance came in at $25.15 bn vs $35.0 bn cons, with exports growing just 1.0% y/y vs 8.0% expected.

CAD Gains, EUR Loses Hawkish commentary from Bank of Canada Governor Carney overnight saw the CAD gain across the board Thursday in New York. Carney noted that the Canadian economy is in a “very different place” than its peers, and that withdrawal of some of the monetary stimulus may become appropriate as the economy grows […]

Sweden FinMin Not Worried The euro ground lower in the European session, though the newswires were fairly quiet and data releases thin. EURSEK continued its move lower and sits at the bottom of yesterday’s range.

AUD Jobs Data Beats Expectations AUDUSD outperformed overnight after the July employment numbers rose more than expectations (+14.0k vs +10.0k cons, -28.3k revised from -27.0k last), though the time series remains volatile and the split between full and part time workers was fairly even.

BoJ In The Spotlight S&P lowering Greece’s outlook to negative, Spain revising budget deficit targets and a 0.9% drop in Germany’s June industrial production all weighed on the euro Wednesday.

King Lowers Expectations For Rate Cut Sterling rallied around half a big-figure versus the dollar and euro on Wednesday following the BoE’s quarterly inflation report. While the report was clearly dovish, expectations had already factored this into the price and Governor King gave some marginal reasons to buy GBP in the post-report press conference.