Forex Forecast
Market Mover: 11 August 2011
The US downgrade has been a trigger for a sharp rise in risk aversion, pushing yields to record lows. The relief in markets following the FOMC statement that rates were to be kept exceptionally low until at least mid-2013 failed to last. Concerns over a deep economic slowdown have intensified – the global economy is […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 09 Aug 2011
Markets lose confidence in global recovery FOMC up, but no magic bullets China data key for Asia session, AUD in particular SEK still looks exposed in Europe.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 08 August 2011
After S&P US Downgrade, ECB response narrows Italian-German bond spread significantly. Markets will test ECB’s commitment. FOMC statement, China data, are other main event risks. Latter could grant a reprieve from further AUD sell-off.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 08 August 2011
After S&P US Downgrade, ECB response in focus and could help EURUSD up to 1.4500. See Market Focus on p.3 for our take on S&P’s action. FOMC statement, China data, are other main event risks. Latter could grant a reprieve from further AUD sell-off. After S&P downgraded the US over the weekend, financial markets have […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 04 August 2011
• Key for EUR will be whether the ECB considers restarting SMP • Japan intervenes to weaken JPY, BOJ eases policy • A sustained USDJPY rally is unlikely given current market nervousness
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 03 August 2011
Price action characterised by traditional risk-off on global growth fears. Top Japanese officials meet but rhetoric does not signal any urgency for JPY intervention. US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 03 Aug 2011
US ends budget stalemate but little euphoria results as concerns remain fixed on global growth EUR likely to remain under pressure if GIIPS spreads fail to re-compress US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia -27 July 2011
FX finally takes fright at US ratings risk Solid AAA G10 credits may have further to run Upside AU CPI surprise could see new AUDUSD highs
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 July 2011
All eyes will be fixed on the EU Summit meeting Expectations of a resolution on Greece are high, and so any disappointment will weigh on sentiment China HSBC PMI will be released this morning
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 20 July 2011
President Obama throws his support behind “Gang of Six” plan, providing comfort to the markets BoC significantly changes its tone, turning hawkish Expectations of dovish BoE minutes should pull GBP lower
Next rate move in Australia to be down – 100 bp’s of easing through 2012
Westpac now expect a sequence of rate cuts beginning with 25bps in December 2011 and through 2012 totalling 100bps prior to a period of steady rates in 2013. While the catalyst for the first rate cut is likely to come from offshore we do not expect it to be a one off. Interest rates are […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 14 July 2011
Bernanke, Moody’s batter USD; but debt negotiations may provide some hope Italian debt auctions, will-they-or-won’t-they emergency summit are the focus for Europe US, EU woes to further encourage safe-haven flows into CHF, JPY, Gold