Forex Forecast
Emerging Markets Economics Daily
Latin America Brazil: We forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012 Chile: The minutes from the 18 August monetary policy meeting showed a diversity of opinions among board members regarding the future path of the monetary policy rate Colombia: CPI data for August will be published today; we expect the data […]
Americas FX Daily – Euro stress rises into weekend
What happened overnight – Reports indicate stress in IMF/EU talks with Greece – Greece denies disagreement with EU – Italian yields continue to rise, 10-year back above 5.2% – UK construction PMI weaker than expected
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 02 September 2011
– All eyes on US employment report; an upside surprise could result in a risk-off reaction Better than expected data out of the US left markets trading with a risk off tone, although commodity currencies continue to trade well. Consensus was looking for ISM manufacturing to fall into contraction territory, but it managed to hold […]
FX Daily Strategist Europe – 26 August 2011
Has St. Louis Fed´s Bullard let the Bernanke cat out of the bag? Our guess is risk sentiment may not come to too much harm Friday, in which case USD may be back on sale, AUD to outperform KOF a key release that may harden Swiss resolve to prevent CHF re-appreciating
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 26 Aug 2011
Has St .Louis Fed’s Bullard let the Bernanke cat out of the bag? We think he may have. Our guess is risk sentiment may not come to too much harm Friday, in which case USD may be back on sale KOF a key release that may harden Swiss resolve to prevent CHF re-appreciating.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 25 August 2011
Risk positive Wednesday despite more poor EZ data, but USD does better on position adjustments Not much to look forward to pre-Friday; German consumer confidence, initial claims of some interest. A mildly positive for risk Wednesday, but which (unusually) saw the dollar firmer on the session. With the key Eurozone data now behind us, the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 23 August 2011
EURUSD holds well given decent Eurozone Services PMI Risk on rally likely today though financials/housing could be an obstacle Positioning complicates JPY intervention prospects
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 23 August 2011
Better than expected China PMI boosts sentiment, but against a backdrop of weaker financials Weaker Eurozone PMIs to push EURUSD to lower end of the 1.41-1.45 range JPY and CHF to find support on increased risk aversion
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 23 Aug 2011
A weak China PMI to leave commodity currencies vulnerable to further downside Eurozone PMIs to push EURUSD to lower end of the 1.41-1.45 range JPY and CHF to find support on increased risk aversion
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 19 August 2011
Philly Fed plunge brings double-dip fears to the fore, raising the stakes for next week’s Jackson Hole meet. Anxious wait now for Eurozone PMI/ZEW data next week. Another Lazarus-like revival in risk appetite looks unlikely into the weekend; USD, CHF and JPY to stay bid.
FX Views: A world without havens and limited policy puts
We continue to expect EUR to appreciate towards 1.50 against the USD in the next 6-12 months, but refrain from recommending long euros or risk for now. Risk looks skewed to the downside near term. High uncertainty and the limited extent of policy puts make us stay close to safe haven currencies and low volatility […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 15 August 2011
CHF and JPY to stay in the spotlight, both at risk of renewed strength. EURUSD more prone to fall than rally barring sharp improvement in global risk appetite. We favour short EURJPY and short EURAUD here.