Forex Forecast
FX Strategist – Weekly Update: revisiting the yen – please recycle
With most currency pairs in limbo awaiting the results of the weekend summit in Europe, we turn our attention to the JPY, which has been somewhat sidelined in recent weeks.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Another downside EUR/USD attempt
The euro looks offered again… EURUSD focus on the recent 1.3653 low and in EURJPY the high 104s is of great interest… EURCHF broke a triangle earlier and is targeting 1.2535…
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – Whipsaw markets
After Monday’s reversal patterns the market yesterday begun correcting them (and in some cases nullifying them). For today especially some $-pairs coming close to important levels (returning bids or breaking Monday’s low point).
FX Strategy Flash: USDJPY – Short from Y77.40
– Find attached two previously published FX Strategy pieces related to USDJPY and authored by Rob Ryan – The first, originally published on Sep 8 (‘On the Floor in Japan’) includes a discussion of why we believe it is totally wrong to expect the BoJ to attempt to mimic the SNB’s September actions is setting […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Correctional forces still simmering
If the recent counter-trend moves are corrections – as we think they are – they are running late now with notable overhead resistance in both SP500 & EuroStoxx50 to consider… EURUSD could still score – over 1.3699 would target 1.3765, but another upside attempt is NOT a done deal…
Turkey watchers
Turkey’s current account deficit came out in line with expectations at about USD4.0bn in August. The deficit was at 5.3bn in July. Compared to August last year, the deficit is up 30% but the important point is that there is a clear slowdown in the pace.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Europhoria boosts risk appetite – but will it last?
EURUSD and other USD pairs may extend the recent move somewhat, but dollar weakness is likely still just a patch… 1.3937 is key in EURUSD and first support is found at 1.3525…
GBPUSD: Tomorrow’s MPC meeting provides upside risks for GBPUSD
Today’s UK data provided a mixed picture of the UK economy, with the services PMI for September surprising to the upside at 52.9 (consensus 50.5), while the final estimate of Q2 GDP was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Is “risk-on” off again?
In several markets we think we see tentative signs that the correction (risk-on) is fading already, though this has yet to be confirmed to fully realign price action with underlying “risk-off” trends. EURUSD under 1.3481, GBPUSD below 1.5432 & EURJPY under 102.86 would be the confirmations we are looking for in majors…
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 26 Sept 2011
Sentiment extremely mixed in Europe : Risk sentiment has been erratic with a risk-off mood in equity markets in Asia given way to a risk-on tone in Europe. While there was little concrete from the weekend G20/IMF meetings, equities are rallying (led by the financials) in response to a UK Telegraph report of a comprehensive […]
HSBC – Top Research from the weekend
Please find below a few key pieces of research over the weekend: 1) EFSF Vote in German Parliament {http://bit.ly/qiLuz7} 2) EZ Sovereign Debt Crisis – Who, What, Where and When {http://bit.ly/rsunKS} 3) Asian FX: CNH unsettled by contagion {http://bit.ly/pDjPSY} 4) HSBC Essentials {http://bit.ly/qDLhNI} 5) HSBC forecast changes {http://bit.ly/n5OPxo}
AUD, NZD and RBNZ forecast change: The storm before the calm
The AUD and NZD have lost significant ground in recent days as global macro conditions have deteriorated further. As discussed in detail in the FX Quarterly, we expect a deterioration of the European crisis to extend the short-term underperformance of cyclical assets globally, as well as strengthen the USD because of its safe-haven status.