Forex Forecast

EURUSD & EURJPY both look heavy and could soon start threatening “B-wave lows” at 1.3653 & 104.77… AUDUSD is rechecking a wider 1.0370/1.0190 support zone diverging price/momentum indicators indicate bids there won’t put the pair on much a better footing…

JPY selling by the BOJ triggered aggressive moves in the JPY crosses, with USD/JPY and EUR/JPY breaking up through their daily clouds. Near-term dips are to be expected, but with the spectre of further intervention still in place, risk is for further JPY weakness over the near term.

USDJPY intervention pushed the pair considerably higher. Making the $ index rise sharply whereas the € index remains bid….so a pure $ move it is.

We have become even more positive on Asian currencies. We are outright bullish for Q4 11 and Q1 12. I was in China and Indonesia recently. I will be in Korea next week. Our top currency picks are KRW, IDR and SGD. INR and CNH/CNY will under-perform. Note that our coverage of Asian currencies is […]

Well, the relief rally certainly continued higher, higher than what we had in mind. The only market responding in a different way was the Italian bond market…watch out if breaking above 5.99%.

It’s D-Day today (D for debt, D for Decision, D for Derailed?) and markets buckle up… EURUSD & EURJPY hangs below key resistance levels at 1.3968 & 107.75… GBPUSD advance looks cautios and ought to run into trouble no later than at 1.6105\15…

The 10y FRA/GER spread is still widening but this is currently overlookd by FX… EURUSD stands just below a thick bundle of resistance points (starting at 1.3968). Near-term action from here will be important for the future.

The common currency still on track for possible somewhat higher levels but we have also entered an area that is clustered with resistance. EUR/USD looking for returning offers once a new high set, USDJPY new historical low on Friday and there’s more to come, USDCAD watching the 1.0044 support with interest,

Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Topping bias intact and reinforced by indecisive breach of trend support, but through 1.3653 needed to confirm a more defensive tone for 1.3565 USD/CHF: Bearish trend line reversal and chart support erosion points to .78968/748 into next week