Forex Charts

AUDUSD – rounded top and o/n break suggest test of .9205 lows

Aussie has continued to drift lower since completing a 5-wave rally and a bearish geometric pattern at .9505.

Yesterday we highlighted the bullish RSI divergence and 5-wave decline from 1.37; together this evidence points to a short-term low at 1.3333.

The bigger than expected correction found support at the 61.8% retracement; the 2 correction legs also sport a 1.618 relationship.

The German trade balance for June is expected to show an increase in exportsand imports after both figures declined in May.

The main event is the ECB Governing Council meeting where we expect the ECB toremain on hold.

The rally from 101.07 is strong has satisfied 3 of the requisite 5 waves for an impulsive rather than corrective rally.

This decline in Sterling from the highs is extending and clearly below long-term uptrends now.

The impulsive decline from 1.37 still suggests a sell-off towards 1.3320/00 to complete 5-waves down.

German factory orders are expected to rebound in June after a decline of 1.7% m/min May.

Bouncing off major daily support in what could be wave-D of a larger triangle consolidation.

Failed to sustain a move above 102.80/103.09 pivot highs; the channel from May acted as resistance and put the breaks on the rally.

Euro retail sales are expected to have increased 0.5% m/m in June. Consumerconfidence,