Forex Analysis
USDJPY – break of 97.47 needed to confirm initial 5-wave advance
One way to discern a turn is to look for an initial 5-wave advance (the direction of a 5-wave move indicates thelarger trend).
EURUSD – < 1.35 channel support is critical 1.3462/48 zone
The a-b-c correction we have been outlining continues to unfold lower as negative technical developmentsbuild. The trend line from early September is broken (and has already been tested),
EUR Mid-day Analysis
While silence may have been golden for the Euro during the early part of this month, negative newsheadlines are putting it squarely on the defensive early this morning.
CHF Mid-day Analysis
Lukewarm Swiss inflation readings yesterday may have been an early warning signal, as the SwissFranc went from a new weekly high to
JPY Mid-day Analysis
Yesterday’s key reversal from a new high for the move may lead to further downside for the Yen as safehavensupport continues to erode.
USD Mid-day Analysis
While the US government shutdown and the lack of fresh economic data still casts a long shadow overthe market,
FX Market Drivers open recommendations
The US: Due to the shutdown of government, many economic indicators are not released. It isexpected that the economic indicators will be released two days after the shutdown ofgovernment ends.
Norway: Everybody expects somewhat lower inflation
Everybody forecast lower inflation Core inflation rose from 1.4% in June to 2.5% in August surprising everybody including Norges Bank.
Optimal control and rates expectations
As September’s FOMC minutes are released today it is worth considering how rates expectations have evolved since June.
The Global Macro Pulse
Overnight Price Action The S&P fell 1.2% in New York, but the combination of news that the White House is considering a temporary increase in the
FX Daily
Market movers today * In the US an agreement on increasing the debt ceiling does not appear to be imminent.
G10 Macroprudentials and FX implications
For much of the past 3-4 years, our quarterly Currency Strategy has recommended small, fundamentally strong peripheral G10 currencies at the expense of their money-printing G4 counterparts.