Forex Analysis

Where to go loco

It’s a truism that all politics are local, but for financial markets globaldevelopments periodically hog centre stage. A clear example was the run-up toFed tapering, which we are now over.

The Global Macro Pulse

The dollar is little changed against the majors, but slightly weaker against EM Asia currencies. AUDUSD is at 0.9024, off its overnight high in US trading, EURUSD is flat at 1.3736,

FI Eye-opener: Revised inflation reduces pressure on ECB

Ifo came in better than expected, supporting the view of an improving growth outlook. If the ECB were to act in March it would not because of growth, but a deteriorating inflation outlook.

FX Daily

The second release of the German Q4 GDP figure is likely to get some attention asthe first release of the underlying components is due.

GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Monday at $1.6655 after rate had recovered off extended pullback lows of $1.6583, recovering to $1.6670 during the NY afternoon before drifting off into the close.

EUR/USD Analysis

The pair was under pressure during the early European session Monday, sliding to a $1.3708 low before a strong open in US stocks encouraged a recovery back to $1.3748.

AUD/USD Analysis

Aussie slipped below $0.9000 in European hours for a low of $0.8965 before recovering again during the US session to regain the $0.9010/20 zone. It got up through $0.9040,

The pair started the session at Y102,45 after another lackluster US session, which saw the pair trapped in a Y102.41-61 range, ignoring the overnight rise in both US stocks and the Nikkei futures (+1.5%),

Corporate Positioning: Bracing For The Next Big Move

Exporters have significantly shortened their protection against a higher NZD. Our aggregate Exporter Hedging Index (EHI) shows that exporters have run down forward cover to 5.5 months,

EUR Mid-day Analysis

To start, the March Euro has seemingly forged a quasi double high up at 1.3773 and given the initialweakness in the Dollar today the path of least resistance in the Euro is pointing upward.

CHF Mid-day Analysis

Like the Yen, the Swiss has seemingly lost some of its safe haven bid this morning in the face of aslightly positive shift in the Ukraine situation.

JPY Mid-day Analysis

Tight coiling in the Yen seems to suggest an impending decision by the currency trade on the direction ofthe Yen. With ongoing gains in the Euro,