Forex Analysis

Central European Daily

Czech PPI fell by 0.3 % y/y in April CNB minutes signal later exit from intervention regime Friday trading on regional FX markets felt the lack of significant stimuli.

“We are bullish USDJPY”

Japanese core machinery orders surged in March to 16.1% yy (and should rise in April – June too) easily surpassing modest expectations, notes BNP Paribas.

The Global Macro Pulse

The USD has weakened slightly. EURUSD has risen above 1.370 from a low of 1.369 earlier. USDJPY remained in a tight range and seemed firmly capped below 101.60.

FI Eye-Opener: Political uncertainty to keep yields depressed

After three days of huge bond rallies, yields finally found some support on Friday. The German 10-year yield rebounded by around 2bp, while the corresponding move in the US was some 3bp.

FX Daily

In terms of data releases, we have a very light calendar today. Instead, focus willcontinue to be on comments from ECB board members Weidmann, Mersch andCoeure.

AUD/USD Analysis

It’s been a subdued session for the aussie this morning after it opened at $0.9362 and then marked an early high of $0.9377.

GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Friday at $1.6811 after rate had recovered off earlier lows of $1.6785 to $1.6842 ($1.6841 76.4% $1.6875-1.6732), easing lower post the London 4pm fix,

The pair started this morning at $1.3703 after marking a $1.3687 to $1.3719 range in the US last Friday. It retraced back to an early pre-Asian low of $1.3689 but recovered to $1.3703 as the Asian market got underway proper.

Scandi markets ahead

In Sweden, the week ahead will contain quite a few interesting sets of data. Mostprominent, of course, the labour market survey for April,

Leveraged Funds Cut EUR, GBP Longs, Increased AUD longs

The following are key points in ANZ’s analysis for the latest speculative positioning report (positioning data is for the week ending 13 May.

USD/JPY Analysis

JPY started this morning with very small losses, as dollar-yen opened at Y101.57 while euro-yen opened at Y139.14.

Markets Outlook – Producer Prices Reflect Wider Inflation

With all of these global and domestic forces pulling this way and that, what does it all mean for the Reserve Bank’s OCR path? Generally speaking, we think it’s hard to tell.