GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Friday at $1.6811 after rate had recovered off earlier lows of $1.6785 to $1.6842 ($1.6841 76.4% $1.6875-1.6732), easing lower post the London 4pm fix, through the NY afternoon and into the close of the week. Rate edged higher in Asia, the pound getting a lift from US Pfizer raised bid for UK AstraZeneca (valuing the company at $110bln, as well as upping the cash component to around stg11.3bln). Cable pushed to an overnight high of $1.6830 before settling back above $1.6820 as press reports suggested that the improved bid could still be rejected (FT). Trade through Asia was very subdued with most major pairs contained within tight ranges. A light data calendar today with focus remaining on outside influences, ECB rhetoric in focus ahead of their June meeting. However, the rest of week has some key UK data releases. UK CPI due Tuesday, retail sales Wednesday and GDP Thursday. BOE Minutes also dueWednesday but not expected to provide any surprises after last week’s QIR. BOE Carney warned about UK house prices in a weekend interview and sees them as thegreatest threat to UK economic growth. Cable offers remain at $1.6840/50 ahead of the May14 high at $1.6875. Support $1.6814-00, $1.6785/75.