While the Dollar initially managed a fresh higher high for the move off fresh stimulus from China, it was unable to hold the initial probe higher on the charts. The path of least resistance in the Dollar might be expected to remain up, as initial scheduled data later this morning from Personal Income is expected to rise by +0.4%. While US Construction Spending later this morning is also expected to rise that news may be partially offset by a minor contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI results. Signs of easing outside of the US, steady Euro zone factory growth results and favorable chart action in the Dollar should leave the Dollar bulls with a modest edge to start the new trading week. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 24th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 67,947 contracts, an increase of 2,063 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 87,761 contracts, an increase of 1,420 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 19,815 contracts, a decrease of 642 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 87,762 contracts. This represents an increase of 1,421 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 95.80. The next area of resistance is around 95.59 and 95.80, while 1st support hits today at 95.01 and below there at 94.64.