Not surprisingly the Dollar is under modest pressure because of dovish hints from the US Fed but it is also possible that the Dollar is also seeing some pressure from ideas that US data so far this week has been a little disappointing. One might also suggest that global flight to quality interest is declining in the wake of a Greek debt deal extension, talk of some respect for the cease-fire in the Ukraine and by suggestions from the Saudi Oil Minister that world oil demand is growing. At least in the near term, the trade sees the US Fed to be capable of pushing back the rate hike timing and therefore US scheduled data should be expected to have a noted impact on the value of the Dollar. While we see the potential for a further slide in the Dollar we doubt that the March Dollar Index is poised for a definitive downside breakout and extension below consolidation support down at 93.83. In order to see a definitive downside breakout today probably requires noted weakness in residential home sales results later this morning.
Technical Outlook: Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the shortterm trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The near-term upside target is at 95.22. The next area of resistance is around 94.80 and 95.22, while 1st support hits today at 94.23 and below there at 94.08.