Bears remain firmly focused on the falling daily channel base coming in around $0.7762 today after having falling steadily following failures at the channel top last week. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls needing a close above $0.8055 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the $0.8132- 0.8216 region where the 21-DMA and falling daily channel top are located. The falling daily channel base remains the key concern for bears.
RES 4: $0.8216 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: $0.8132 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8055 – High Jan 23
RES 1: $0.7955 – Hourly resistance Jan 23
LPRICE: $0.7888
SUP 1: $0.7831 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.7762 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.7705 – Low May 26 2009
SUP 4: $0.7452 – Low May 18 2009
Fresh 2015 and nearly 3+ year lows continued Friday following the dramatic correction lower from the 100- DMA failure in recent weeks. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls needing a close above $0.7618 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.7730-0.7892 region where 21, 55 and 100-DMAs are located. The Bollinger band bases remain key concerns for bears but immediate focus remains on the $0.7126-0.7373 region.
RES 4: $0.7710 – High Jan 21
RES 3: $0.7618 – Low Jan 20 now resistance
RES 2: $0.7584 – High Jan 22
RES 1: $0.7528 – Hourly resistance Jan 23
LPRICE: $0.7438
SUP 1: $0.7373 – Monthly Low Nov 25 2011
SUP 2: $0.7126 – 2011 Low Mar 17 2011
SUP 3: $0.6951 – Monthly Low Aug 25 2010
SUP 4: $0.6797 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
Recent flirtations with the 55-DMA saw the rally come to an end Friday with the AUD/NZD dipping back to the rising daily trend line off Jan 9 lows. The correction lower Friday confirmed an easing of bullish pressure with focus shifting back to the key NZ$1.0460-1.0519 region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0460 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus back to the 2015 and record low. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0680 to reconfirm a bullish bias
RES 4: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8
RES 3: NZ$1.0831 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.1308-1.0354
RES 2: NZ$1.0758 – High Jan 22
RES 1: NZ$1.0680 – Hourly resistance Jan 23
LPRICE: NZ$1.0583
SUP 1: NZ$1.0579 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 2: NZ$1.0533 – Low Jan 20
SUP 3: NZ$1.0519 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0511 – Hourly support Jan 16
The recent failure around the channel top and 100-DMA has resulted in a sustained move lower that reconfirms bearish focus on the falling daily channel base. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls needing a close above ¥94.83 to ease bearish pressure. The Key concern for bears comes from the Bollinger band base but daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S.
RES 4: ¥96.47 – 200-DMA
RES 3: ¥96.20 – Hourly support Jan 21 now resistance
RES 2: ¥95.85 – High Jan 22
RES 1: ¥94.83 – Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥92.61
SUP 1: ¥91.76 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 2: ¥91.15 – Low Mar 17
SUP 3: ¥90.08 – Monthly Low Mar 3 2014
SUP 4: ¥88.22 – 2014 Low Feb 3
Volatile trading continued for the pair Friday with the failure to close above the A$1.4271 seeing the overall bearish bias remain. Bulls need a close above A$1.4271 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus back to A$1.4409. While the A$1.4271 level caps bears retain overall focus on the 2014 low with the Bollinger band base and O/S daily studies seen as the key concerns for bears
RES 4: A$1.4524 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4409 – High Jan 22
RES 2: A$1.4271 – Hourly support Jan 22 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4246 – High Jan 23
LPRICE: A$1.4168
SUP 1: A$1.3965 – 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 2: A$1.3927 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.3850 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5