Attempts to rally recently have stalled ahead of the falling daily channel top with the $0.8301 resistance level just above. This has resulted in a move back towards key support noted in the $0.8130-47 region. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.8130 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus to the 2015 low and overall focus to the channel base coming in around $0.7822 today. Bulls need to see a close above $0.8301 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift immediate focus to the $0.8354-78 region
RES 4: $0.8378 – High Dec 11
RES 3: $0.8354 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8301 – High Dec 12
RES 1: $0.8251 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $0.8172
SUP 1: $0.8147 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8130 – Low Jan 15
SUP 3: $0.8069 – Low Jan 14
SUP 4: $0.8032 – 2015 Low Jan 7
Last week’s failure at the 100-DMA has resulted in a sell-off that has seen immediate focus return to the 2014 low and overall focus shifting back to the $0.7461 2012 low. The Bollinger band base comes in around $0.7663 and is seen as the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a close above $0.7746 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7808 to shift focus back to the $0.7874-92 region.
RES 4: $0.7874 – 100-DMA
RES 3: $0.7863 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.7808 – High Jan 19
RES 1: $0.7746 – Low Jan 16 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.7671
SUP 1: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
SUP 2: $0.7549 – Falling daily trend line projection
SUP 3: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
SUP 4: $0.7373 – Monthly Low Nov 25 2011
AUD/NZD recently found support on dips below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0493) with the NZ$1.0460 level having supported on the sharp pullback from ahead of the NZ$1.0651 resistance level and above the Bollinger band top. This has provided the base for a rally that sees immediate focus shift to the NZ$1.0698-1.0758 region where the 55-DMA is located. The key concern for bulls comes from the Bollinger band top (NZ$1.0617). Bears need a close below NZ$1.0574 to ease bullish pressure
RES 4: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8
RES 3: NZ$1.0756 – Low Dec 4 now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0713 – 55-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0698 – High Dec 11
LPRICE: NZ$1.0650
SUP 1: NZ$1.0574 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: NZ$1.0533 – Low Jan 20
SUP 3: NZ$1.0511 – Hourly support Jan 16
SUP 4: NZ$1.0460 – Low Jan 14
Recent flirtations with the channel top (¥96.76) have seen the AUD/JPY break and look to close above Tuesday with immediate focus having shifted to the ¥97.49-66 region where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls look for a close above ¥97.66 to add support to the bullish case, initially targeting ¥98.35-80 and then ¥99.49-87 above. Bears need a close below Y95.92 to reconfirm bearish focus and below ¥94.94 to shift focus back to the channel base (¥91.75).
RES 4: ¥98.80 – High Dec 11
RES 3: ¥98.35 – High Dec 29
RES 2: ¥97.66 – High Jan 12
RES 1: ¥97.49 – 100-DMA
LPRICE: ¥97.07
SUP 1: ¥96.35 – Low Jan 20
SUP 2: ¥95.92 – Low Jan 19
SUP 3: ¥95.49 – Hourly support Jan 16
SUP 4: ¥94.94 – Low Jan 16
The recent failures to manage a close above the 200-DMA despite numerous spikes above resulted in a sharp sell-off that confirms overall focus on the 2014 low. Key concerns for bears come from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base. In saying that, bulls need a close above A$1.4217 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.4366 to shift focus back to the A$1.4533-1.4767 region where key DMAs are located.
RES 4: A$1.4614 – High Jan 14
RES 3: A$1.4529 – 200-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4366 – Low Jan 12 2015 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4217 – Monthly low Oct 31 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4131
SUP 1: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
SUP 2: A$1.3846 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: A$1.3614 – 200-WMA