While the Swiss has held a large portion of its historic spike up move, one gets the impression that the trade thinks the Swiss is overvalued. If the sharp compacted rally was at least partially the result of technical and capital panic liquidation, then some measure of downside adjustment should be expected. We see a potentially critical pivot point down at 1.1250 and the failure to hold that level could give rise to even more declines ahead.
Technical Outlook: The rally brought the market to a new contract high. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 60-day moving average. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at 131.70. The 9-day
RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 125.53 and 131.70, while 1st support hits today at 105.57 and below there at 91.77.