As of this writing the Euro sits just above a fresh downside breakout point and under ongoing pressure because of a first time ever decline in December consumer prices. Under the current environment falling prices is a death knell and the biggest hope for Euro bulls today, is for a temporary relief from selling in the event that US data is weak. However, the most the bull camp might expect to see is a temporary and weak bounce in the Euro through the US numbers window. Down-trend channel resistance and a fresh sell point for the March Euro is seen up at a down-trend channel line of 1.1777. That down trend resistance line falls down to 1.1739 early next week.
Technical Outlook: The market broke to a new contract low. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside target is at 118.7975. With a reading under 20, the 9-day RSI indicates the market is extremely oversold. The next area of resistance is around 117.3950 and 118.7975, while 1st support hits today at 115.1650 and below there at 114.3375.