Failure to close below the 21-DMA ($0.8139) despite recent flirtations resulted in a rally that confirmed significance of the falling daily channel top with it retreating from marginally above. Initial support is noted at $0.8198 with bears needing a close below to shift immediate focus to the $0.8130 support. Bears then need a close below $0.8130 to shift immediate focus to 2015 lows and overall focus to the falling daily channel base. The Bollinger band top ($0.8220) was seen limiting follow through Thursday.
RES 4: $0.8378 – High Dec 11
RES 3: $0.8372 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8301 – High Dec 12
RES 1: $0.8287 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $0.8231
SUP 1: $0.8198 – Hourly support Jan 15
SUP 2: $0.8130 – Low Jan 15
SUP 3: $0.8069 – Low Jan 14
SUP 4: $0.8032 – 2015 Low Jan 7
The sequence of lower daily lows and highs came to a dramatic end Thursday with the NZD/USD bouncing aggressively from just ahead of Jan 6 lows. The rally saw the kiwi spike above the Bollinger band and channel tops before stalling at the 100-DMA and retreating. Initial support is noted at $0.7757 with bears needing a close below to shift immediate focus to the $0.7674-79 region and overall focus to the 2014 low. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to confirm focus on the $0.7980-0.8039 region where Oct & Nov highs are located.
RES 4: $0.7980 – Monthly high Nov 17
RES 3: $0.7929 – High Nov 27
RES 2: $0.7892 – 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.7853 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.7819
SUP 1: $0.7757 – Hourly support Jan 15
SUP 2: $0.7679 – Low Jan 6
SUP 3: $0.7674 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
AUD/NZD continues to find support on dips below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0482) with the NZ$1.0460 level having supported on the sharp pullback from ahead of the NZ$1.0651 resistance level and above the Bollinger band top. The pullback eases bullish pressure with bears needing a close below NZ$1.0460 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus back to 2015 lows. While NZ$1.0460 supports a bullish bias remains targeting the NZ$1.0651-1.0758 region
RES 4: NZ$1.0698 – High Dec 11
RES 3: NZ$1.0651 – High Dec 15
RES 2: NZ$1.0595 – Hourly support Jan 15 now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0574 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: NZ$1.0517
SUP 1: NZ$1.0460 – Low Jan 14
SUP 2: NZ$1.0435 – High Jan 7 now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0390 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0353 – 2015 & Record Low Jan 7
The bounce from ¥94.26 3 month lows Wednesday resulted in a test of the 21-DMA and falling daily channel top Thursday which confirmed significance capping the rally. The topside failure confirms an overall bearish bias with immediate focus on Wednesday’s ¥94.26 low and overall focus on the falling daily channel base (¥91.98). The Bollinger band base (¥95.55) is seen as the key concern for bears and likely to limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥98.35 – High Dec 29
RES 3: ¥97.66 – High Jan 12
RES 2: ¥97.10 – 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥97.00 – High Jan 13, Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: ¥95.77
SUP 1: ¥95.17 – Low Jan 15
SUP 2: ¥94.76 – Hourly support Jan 14
SUP 3: ¥94.11 – Low Jan 14
SUP 4: ¥93.41 – Low Oct 20
The recent failures to manage a close above the 200-DMA despite numerous spikes above resulted in a sharp sell-off that confirms overall focus on the 2014 low. Key concerns for bears come from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base. In saying that, bulls now need a close above A$1.4217 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.4366 to shift focus back to the A$1.4539-1.4767 region where key DMAs are located
RES 4: A$1.4614 – High Jan 14
RES 3: A$1.4539 – 200-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4366 – Low Jan 12 2015 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4217 – Monthly low Oct 31 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4137
SUP 1: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
SUP 2: A$1.3846 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: A$1.3613 – 200-WMA