The biggest surprise this morning is the lack of another new high for the move in the Dollar but the Dollar might be short term technically overdone into the US non-farm payroll release later today. However, the Dollar should remain underpinned and in favor as US scheduled data this week was positive, the trade saw disappointing German exports overnight and UK industrial data overnight was somewhat soft. Expectations for today’s payrolls center on a 240,000 gain which just happens to coincide with a private jobs report released earlier in the week. In addition to payrolls, the market will also see whole sale trade but we suspect that the focus will generally fixate on the payrolls. While we suspect that the Dollar will continue to rise ahead, the gains this week might have priced in an as expected payroll result and it could take a number north of +250,000 to send the Dollar higher without a temporary back and fill action. Initial support in the March Dollar is seen this morning 91.74 but that support line rises to 92.01 on Monday.
Technical Outlook: The market made a new contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The nearterm upside target is at 93.06. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 92.82 and 93.06, while 1st support hits today at 92.28 and below there at 91.98.