The Swiss referendum that would require gold purchases in conjunction with market action on the Swiss is expected to make it extremely difficult for the SNB to undertake open market activities and the measure is not expected to pass. However, like the Yen, the path of least resistance in the Swiss is expected to remain down until there is macro-economic forward motion in the Euro zone, or the Russian sanction headwinds are removed. Therefore look to sell rallies back toward 104 in the Swiss expecting the longer term downtrend to continue.
Technical Outlook: The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next upside target is 105.03. The next area of resistance is around 103.91 and 105.03, while 1st support hits today at 102.35 and below there at 101.90.