The sharp reversal higher from Friday’s lows and close above the 21-DMA ($0.8735) are key concerns for bears with bulls looking for a close above Friday’s high to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the $0.8871-0.8913 region where the cloud base, Sept monthly high and Fibonacci retracement are located. Initial support is now noted at $0.8714 on the hourlies with a close below needed to reconfirm bearish focus and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8887 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.8871 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9505-0.8540
RES 2: $0.8853 – High Oct 31
RES 1: $0.8773 – High Nov 14
LPRICE: $0.8750
SUP 1: $0.8714 – Hourly support Nov 14
SUP 2: $0.8647 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: $0.8587 – Low Nov 10
SUP 4: $0.8540 – 2014 Low Nov 7
Bulls take comfort in the bounce from a dip below the 21-DMA ($0.7840) Friday with immediate focus on the $0.7967-0.8042 region. Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a rally that targets the 100 & 200-DMAs $0.8240-0.8396. A close above the 55-DMA was last seen back in late July. Bears need to see a close below $0.7791 to regain the upper hand and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 3: $0.8000 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.7980 – High Oct 29
RES 1: $0.7967 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: $0.7911
SUP 1: $0.7822 – Low Nov 14
SUP 2: $0.7791 – Low Nov 12
SUP 3: $0.7712 – Low Nov 11
SUP 4: $0.7660 – 2014 Low Nov 7
AUD/NZD remains heavy with immediate focus on the 100-DMA. The 100-DMA is seen as key support with tests in Sept & Oct resulting in rallies back towards the NZ$1.1300 region. Bulls need to see a close above NZ$1.1091 to ease bearish pressure a little and above NZ$1.1161 to confirm a break of the 21 & 55-DMAs and shift overall focus back to retests of the 2014 highs. A close below the 100-DMA sees focus shift to the NZ$1.0911-78 region.
RES 4: NZ$1.1304 – 2014 High Oct 31
RES 3: NZ$1.1197 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.1161 – High Nov 11
RES 1: NZ$1.1091 – Previous daily support now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.1061
SUP 1: NZ$1.1031 – 100-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.0978 – Low Oct 22, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
SUP 4: NZ$1.0911 – 200-DMA
Fresh 2014 and 18 month highs continue for the AUD/JPY with overall focus having shifted to the Y105.42 2013 high. The Bollinger band top and O/B daily studies are the key issues for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below Y100.71 to ease bearish pressure and below Y100.06 to hint at a deeper correction that targets the key Y98.05 support. Immediate focus is now on the Y102.17-53 region.
RES 4: Y105.43 – 2013 High Apr 2013
RES 3: Y102.53 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y102.38 – Monthly High May 3 2013
RES 1: Y102.17 – Rising daily channel top
LPRICE: Y102.11
SUP 1: Y100.71 – Low Nov 14
SUP 2: Y100.06 – Low Nov 12
SUP 3: Y99.71 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: Y99.28 – High Nov 7 now support
Bears remain concerned at the bounce from ahead of A$1.4217 with bounces from this level previously having resulted in rallies back to the A$1.4604-1.4707 region. In saying that, bounces have so far stalled ahead of the DMAs in the A$1.4358-99 region. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the DMAs and an easing of bearish pressure that hints at a shift in focus to the $1.4604-1.4707 region with a close above A$1.4487 to confirm.
RES 4: A$1.4604 – High Oct 21
RES 3: A$1.4487 – High Nov 7
RES 2: A$1.4399 – 21-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4382 – High Nov 12
LPRICE: A$1.4288
SUP 1: A$1.4230 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4217 – Low Oct 31
SUP 3: A$1.4184 – Low Sept 12
SUP 4: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
