News
BG: Neutral – FX reserves up 1.1% mom in December (p2)
CZ: Mixed – Government sells CZK 8bn of CZGB 2.75/14: bid/cover ratio 2.03, avg. yield 1.95%, (p2)
HU: Negative – Sharp sell-off amid ongoing uncertainty regarding external assistance (p1)
KZ: Mixed – President issued a decree that the state of emergency in the city of Zhanaozen (p1)
RO: Mixed – Nov PPI came in at 0.4% mom (7.9% yoy) (p2)
Today’s Events
CZ: CZK 8bn 273b T-Bill auction / HU: HUF 45bn 12M T-Bill auction, Nov unemployment / KZ: Dec international reserves, KZT 15bn 5Y GB auction / PL: Dec international reserves / RO: Policy rate decision, RON 0.7bn 2Y GB auction (reopening of 17 Oct 2011 issue) / SRB: SRB 6bn 182d T-Bill auction / RU: Dec CPI, Nov retail sales
EEMEA Markets
Black Wednesday in Hungary: ongoing uncertainty around the IMF/EU talks pushed Hungarian markets deeply lower yesterday. EUR/HUF hit historical highs, the CDS as well whilst local and hard currency spreads moved sharply higher. The open this morning does not look better either with EUR/HUF continue marching higher. Looking ahead we summarized the key events which will formulate market dynamics in the coming weeks. For the time being we remain cautious and would only consider adding to positions in case a significant progress occurs regarding external assistance. Jan 5 – HUF45bn 12M t-bill auction. Jan 10 – 3M t-bill auction: amounts to be announced on the 5th of Jan (around HUF40bn is normal size). Jan 10 – NBH MPC non rate setting meeting: normally they do not issue statement or touch rates but we have example for both so can not be fully ruled out. Jan 11 -T-bill maturity, HUF213bn. Jan 11 – NBH publishes the Minutes of the December meeting where they hiked 50bp. Jan 11 – Chief Hungary negotiator, Fellegi, meets IMF. He is expected to meet several European leaders in the coming days but no dates are available yet. Jan 11 – EC meeting: according to Bruxinfo (Brussel based media) several Hungary related topic will be on the agenda as well: potential sanctions after the approval of the central bank law, excessive deficit procedure, decision weather the EC is willing to continue/start talk about external assistance. Jan 12 – HGB bond auctions: amounts exact papers to be announced on the 5th of Jan, normal size around HUF30-40bn. Jan 17 – 3M t-bill auction: amounts to be announced on the 12th of Jan. Jan 18 – T-bill maturity, HUF30bn. Jan 18 – According to the EconMin IMF will make a decision about the talks on this day: this can only happen in agreement with the EC. Jan 19 – 12M t-bill auction: amounts to be announced on the 12th of Jan. Jan 24 – NBH MPC rate setting meeting: outcome highly depends on events in the run up to the meeting, in case no progress on IMF/EU talks a significant rate hike can not be ruled out.