The “combined” spec and fund Net Long position in the Dollar has hit a new record level at 61,041contracts and that positioning is probably understated given the added gains made after the report was compiled.However, the Dollar generally remains in vogue despite headlines that the Euro zone garnering a stimulus fromfavorable exchange rates. We think the Dollar needs to see positive numbers to sustain current pricing in theDollar Index as the breakneck gains over the last 3 weeks have priced in a distinct interest rate and macroeconomicdifferential edge and therefore US numbers need to justify the gains on the charts. However, the trendin the Dollar is up and the head of the bull might not be turned without distinctly weak US existing home salesresults later today and or signs that the Cease-fire in the Ukraine is getting closer to a Peace deal. TheCommitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 16th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 53,336 contracts, an increase of 20,815 contracts. The Commercial traderswere net short 61,041 contracts, an increase of 21,049 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 7,705contracts, an increase of 234 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net longposition of 61,041 contracts. This represents an increase of 21,049 contracts in the net long position held bythese traders.
Technical Outlook: A new contract high was made on the rally. The daily stochastics gave a bullishindicator with a crossover up. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’sclose above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The upside daily closingprice reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swingresistance. The near-term upside target is at 85.32. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSIover 70. The next area of resistance is around 85.16 and 85.32, while 1st support hits today at 84.60 and belowthere at 84.18.