The failure at the $0.9113 level on Tuesday has seen the AUD/USD correct sharply lower and dip below the 61.8% Fibonacci support once more with immediate focus now having shifted to the $0.8891 level. The $0.9113 resistance level is now key with bulls needing a close above to confirm an easing of bearish pressure Overall, while $0.9113 caps bears now focus on the $0.8660-94 region. The key concerns for bears remain O/S studies and Bollinger band bases.
RES 4: $0.9182 – 200-DMA
RES 3: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 2: $0.9113 – Low Sept 10 now resistance
RES 1: $0.9069 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8949
SUP 1: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 2: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 3: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
SUP 4: $0.8317 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
The failure ahead of the layers of resistance that have developed in the $0.8198-0.8307 region reconfirms bearish pressure with bears initially targeting the $0.8037-51 region where the falling daily channel base and 2014 lows are located. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top, an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.8411-37 region.
RES 4: $0.8259 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 2: $0.8230 – High Sept 16
RES 1: $0.8198 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8090
SUP 1: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 2: $0.8037 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.7927 – High Sept 4 2013 now support
SUP 4: $0.7855 – Low Sept 5 2013
The pullback from 2014 highs has found support at the NZ$1.1021 level with the AUD/NZD bouncing back towards initial resistance. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and hint at a shift in overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below NZ$1.1021 to reconfirm bearish pressure with the Bollinger band base remaining the key concern and likely to limit downside follow through.
RES 4: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1142 – 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1070
SUP 1: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0975 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0837 – 200-DMA
The 50.0% Fibonacci support confirmed significance with the AUD/JPY having bounced from this level Tuesday. The pair has been unable to capitalize on the close above the 21-DMA with the retreat back below Wednesday seeing focus return to the 50% Fibo support. Bears favour a break lower while Y97.57 caps which shifts overall focus to the 200-DMA although the 55 & 100-DMAs are likely to provide some support along the way.
RES 4: Y98.66 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 2: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Y97.57 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: Y97.10
SUP 1: Y96.88 – High Sept 15 now support
SUP 2: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 3: Y96.12 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
The rally from 2014 lows has so far stalled ahead of the Bollinger band top with the 100-DMA noted above. The failure of bears to capitalize on the close back below the 55-DMA Tuesday sees focus return to the A$1.4420-78 region with bears now needing a close below A$1.4218 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bulls look for a close above A$1.4478 to reconfirm bullish pressure and target the 200-DMA (A$1.4823).
RES 4: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 3: A$1.4450 – 100-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4436 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: A$1.4420 – High Sept 15
LPRICE: A$1.4350
SUP 1: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4137 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
