AUD/USD has again found support around the 61.8% Fibonacci support with the bounce so far capped by the low from Sept 10. Bulls take comfort in the bounce when combined with the correcting O/S daily studies and now look for a close above $0.9113 to shift focus to the $0.9182-0.9229 region. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at $0.9072 with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to the 61.8% Fibonacci support
RES 4: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
RES 3: $0.9182 – 200-DMA
RES 2: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 1: $0.9113 – Low Sept 10 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9083
SUP 1: $0.9072 – Hourly support Sept 16
SUP 2: $0.8984 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 3: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 4: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
Cracks are appearing in the down trend with the NZD/USD bouncing back towards the $0.8245 resistance level on Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8245 to confirm an easing bearish pressure with a close above $0.8353 needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift overall focus higher. The key concern for bears is now correcting O/S daily studies which are supportive of further topside.
RES 4: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 3: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
RES 2: $0.8271 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
LPRICE: $0.8195
SUP 1: $0.8122 – Low Sept 15
SUP 2: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 3: $0.8049 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8012 – Low Sept 10 2013
The pullback from 2014 highs has found support at the NZ$1.1021 level with the AUD/NZD bouncing back towards initial resistance. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and hint at a shift in overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below NZ$1.1021 to reconfirm bearish pressure with the Bollinger band base remaining the key concern and likely to limit downside follow through.
RES 4: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1139 – Hourly resistance Sept 11, 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1090
SUP 1: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0969 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0836 – 200-DMA
The 50.0% Fibonacci support has confirmed its significance so far this week with the AUD/JPY having bounced aggressively from this level Tuesday. The close above the 21-DMA provides bulls with some comfort as they now look for a close above Y97.57 to shift focus back to the 2014 highs. Initial support is now noted at Y97.11 on the hourlies with bears needing a close below to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the 50.0% Fibo.
RES 4: Y98.66 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 2: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Y97.57 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: Y97.43
SUP 1: Y97.11 – Hourly support Sept 16
SUP 2: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 3: Y96.12 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
The rally from 2014 lows has so far stalled ahead of the Bollinger band top with the 100-DMA noted above as pressure returns to the 21-DMA. The close below the 55-DMA (A$1.4303) Tuesday has eased the bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close below the 21-DMA to see focus return to the 2014 low. The Bollinger band top remains the key concern for bulls and may see the pair struggle in The A$1.4429-78 region.
RES 4: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 3: A$1.4455 – 100-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4429 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: A$1.4420 – High Sept 15
LPRICE: A$1.4245
SUP 1: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4135 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
