The dip below $0.9000 to start the new week traded below the 61.8% Fibonacci support by a couple of pips before bouncing a little back towards the Bollinger band base ($0.9068). Key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and Bollinger band base which may see a pause while it catches up. In saying that, bears initially target the Mar monthly low with overall focus remaining on the 2014 low. Bulls need a close above $0.9098 to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
RES 3: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 2: $0.9098 – High Sept 12
RES 1: $0.9049 – High Sept 15
LPRICE: $0.9032
SUP 1: $0.8984 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 2: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 4: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
NZD/USD dipped below the 200-WMA for the first time since Sept 2013 on the way to fresh 7 month lows to start the new week. The kiwi continues to oscillate around the Bollinger band base ($0.8152) as bears remain focused on the 2014 low. Bulls now look for a close above $0.8245 to ease bearish pressure with a close above $0.8353 needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 3: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
RES 2: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 1: $0.8210 – High resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: $0.8175
SUP 1: $0.8122 – Low Sept 15
SUP 2: $0.8061 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: $0.8012 – Low Sept 10 2013
Following on from last Thursday’s close below the 21-DMA, the AUD/NZD continued to head lower to star the new week with bears initially targeting the key NZ$1.0924 support from Aug 1. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the NZ$1.1226 level to shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S is an issue but follow through below the Bollinger band base may be limited.
RES 4: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1139 – Hourly resistance Sept 11, 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1049
SUP 1: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
SUP 2: NZ$1.1003 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0965 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
The correction from 2014 highs continued Monday with the AUD/JPY dipping below the previous Y96.45 support before finding support ahead of the 50.0% Fibonacci support. Bulls now need to see a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y97.57 to shift focus back to 2014 highs. While the 21-DMA caps pressure remains on the Y96.32 support with bears favouring a break lower that targets the 200-DMA overall.
RES 4: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 3: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: Y97.57 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 1: Y97.19 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y96.80
SUP 1: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 2: Y96.10 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 4: Y95.68 – 100-DMA
Following on from Friday’s close above both the 55-DMA and long term falling daily channel top the pair found support around the 55-DMA to start the new week. Bulls initially target the A$1.4462-78 region with a close above then shifting focus to the A$1.4602 July monthly high. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to shift overall focus lower and back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4602 – Monthly High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 2: A$1.4468 – 100-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4420 – High Sept 15
LPRICE: A$1.4330
SUP 1: A$1.4306 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4139 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
