USD/JPY Analysis

The pair closed in NY at Y106.02 last night, just marginally below the Y106.09 overnight high with bullish pressure hinting at further substantial gains for the session ahead. The pair started the Asian day on a bid tone, taking a brief look earlier at the overnight high of Y106.09 before pulling back again. It traded back to Y105.95 and then rebounded to Y106.17 this time, its highest since Oct. 3, 2008, a few minutes after the release of the BOJ minutes. The unexpectedly high fix for the Chinese yuan dampened the dollar’smood for a while and dollar-yen retreated again to the earlier low. The dollar’s recovery, in line with rising US Treasury yields, then lifted the pair through the earlier high, and to Y106.29, matching the high traded on Oct 2, 2008. Gains continued in the late morning/early afternoon, with dollar-yen pushing through Y106.30 to a high of Y106.35, its highest since Y106.54 traded on Oct 1, 2008. Initial support has developed in the Y105.71-82 region but bears really need to see a close below Y104.68 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure.