Apparently the Dollar has already discounted last Friday’s disappointing payroll results as the Dollar has carved out a fresh new high for the move. The talk of additional sanctions against Russia and Russian threatsto respond asymmetrically against the new sanctions has probably undermined the Euro and in turn boosted theDollar. The Dollar might be garnering some lift from hawkish Philly Fed comments and perhaps the Dollar isdrafting support from slack Chinese import data which in turn has sparked talk of more easing from the PBOC.Another issue that might be benefiting the Dollar is the political turmoil being created for the Pound in the wake ofthe Scottish poll favoring independence. In short, the Dollar wins by default because of geopolitical developmentsand the Dollar wins by lingering views that the US economy is relatively stronger than other actively tradedcurrency economies. The main economic release of the session today will be US Consumer credit which isexpected to be strong in the wake of favorable US auto sales results last week. The Commitments of TradersFutures and Options report as of September 2nd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long29,004 contracts, an increase of 239 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 37,009 contracts, anincrease of 10 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 8,005 contracts, a decrease of 229 contracts.Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 37,009 contracts. Thisrepresents an increase of 10 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Support moves up to 83.895.
Technical Outlook: The market made a new contract high on the rally. Rising stochastics atoverbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close overthe 9-bar moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversaldown. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 84.16.The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance isaround 83.97 and 84.16, while 1st support hits today at 83.60 and below there at 83.41.